President Xi accuses the US and its allies of “containment, encirclement and suppression of China”. That leads to imponderables. The verbal attack shows how nervous Xi is. The system conflict he is aiming for is faltering because of home-grown problems.
The National People’s Congress of China meets in full only once a year. Around 3,000 MPs belong to the assembly, which is represented during the rest of the year by a standing committee of around 150 members. Debates are not to be expected at the meeting of the world’s largest legislature. Here decisions of the state and party leadership are only approved.
Nevertheless, the annual conference is also being followed with interest in the West, because it gives a rare insight into the strategy and constitution of the second largest economy in the world. What is otherwise only decided in shielded circles of power is made public here, at least in broad terms. This also applies to statements by the state and party leaders – which are attracting a lot of attention this year. Already at the beginning, the outgoing Prime Minister Li Keqiang spoke of increasing “uncertainties in the external environment” and announced a massive increase in the defense budget by 7.2 percent – which he justified with China’s “responsibility as a great power”.
However, China’s President Xi Jinping is now attracting even more attention. He speaks up in an unusually drastic way for Chinese politicians and makes serious accusations, especially against the USA. The environment for China’s development has “changed dramatically,” he is quoted as saying by the state media, and the imponderables have increased significantly. He accuses the “Western countries, led by the USA” of following a “comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression of China”. This results in “unprecedented, serious challenges” for the country.
China’s president has rarely addressed the systemic conflict with the United States so directly, even though he has been on a confrontational course for years. There are several reasons for this:
First For the president at this people’s congress, a development comes to an end that he has promoted almost since he took office in 2012: the attainment of unlimited power. On Friday he wants to be elected to the highest state office for the third time. No ruler since the founder of the state, Mao Zedong, has acquired such a wealth of power, including the associated personality cult. For years, Xi has eliminated competitors and hoisted followers to high positions under the guise of fighting corruption. At this people’s congress, another opponent within the party will retire in the form of the economically liberal Prime Minister Li Keqiang. He is replaced by a Xi loyalist, Li Qiang. The concept of collective leadership is at an end, Xi reigns supreme – which also means that he can be held directly responsible for undesirable developments.
Secondly China’s economy is currently far from ideal. The targeted growth for 2022 was not achieved, the 3 percent achieved was the second worst growth rate since 1976. Foreign trade with western countries also declined. In addition to weaker demand, this is partly due to the strict zero-Covid policy enforced by Xi, which only ended abruptly after demonstrations in numerous Chinese cities – and triggered a wave of infections. But even independently of this, growth is weakening because of “declining economic momentum and little progress in structural reforms,” as the International Monetary Fund judged. The real estate sector is therefore a major risk – the drama surrounding Evergrande is still well remembered. The bubble is a threat to the entire world economy. Not only the USA – for example in the chip industry – but also Europe and Germany have recognized the danger and are not striving to turn away from Chinese dependencies, but are striving for a solution.
But that depends – third – also along with China’s increasingly aggressive demeanor. Pressure on Taiwan is increasing, and Beijing sees the republic as part of the People’s Republic – Premier Li has just called for “peaceful reunification.” There are also territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. With Xi’s followers, hardliners – so-called wolf warriors – rose in the hierarchy, supporting his foreign policy course. However, this is met with increasing resistance from the USA, which has promised support for Taiwan in the event of aggression. Washington has long been expanding its military presence in East and Southeast Asia – much to Beijing’s displeasure. The fact that the West has been more united towards Russia after the attack on Ukraine than it has been for years is a clear sign that an attack on Taiwan would by no means be a sure-fire success.
Xi cannot afford weakness
With his clear words to Western countries, Xi is likely to signal two things: On the one hand, he is trying to attribute his country’s current economic weakness to external circumstances, to pressure from the United States and its allies. He needs the USA and the West as an enemy in order to cover up internal conflicts. On the other hand, he makes it clear that he is not prepared to make any compromises in the struggle with the USA – especially in times when an affair about alleged Chinese espionage balloons and – so far unproven – allegations by the USA about the origin of the corona virus are causing severe diplomatic upsets care for.
But his words also make people sit up and take notice because he speaks of “containment, encirclement and suppression of China”. The choice of words is reminiscent of Russia’s ruler Vladimir Putin, who justified his war of aggression against Ukraine with an alleged threat from NATO. This attempt to encircle Russia was one of the allegations – given the comparatively small common border, an absurd claim. For Xi, however, Putin is an important ally. Although Beijing has long avoided clearly siding with Russia and clearly warned against the use of nuclear weapons, a pro-Russian peace plan that met with little approval even in Moscow, and rumors of arms deliveries to Moscow speak a different language.
Xi has focused his presidency on the systemic conflict with the US. He wants to make China the leading world power. But in view of the great economic difficulties in their own country and the West, which is united against Russia, this plan is faltering. With his accusations against the US, Xi is seeking to close ranks behind him. He can’t afford to show signs of weakness at the moment, especially not at the height of his power.