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Swiss tourism has overcome the low of the pandemic. However, not all areas can catch up at the same rate.
26 percent more overnight stays in 2022. This is the forecast by the economic research institute BAK Economics for Swiss tourism. It has prepared a tourism forecast on behalf of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco).
Next year a big plus thanks to guests from overseas
A strong recovery in demand could already be observed in the summer of 2021. However, this was slowed down somewhat by the renewed increase in corona cases in the winter months.
“Next year we are assuming that the return of guests from overseas in particular will be a big plus,” says Benjamin Studer from BAK Economics. The economists predict that guests from Europe will continue to return. However, Swiss tourism will not reach its pre-crisis level before the end of 2023.
13 percent growth expected
The war in Ukraine is also having a dampening effect on demand this summer. Rising inflation rates, delivery bottlenecks and high energy prices are weakening the recovery effect after the pandemic.
Above all, tourists from distant markets also feel the higher flight prices. But it is precisely with them that the need to catch up is still greatest. Nevertheless, BAK Economics expects growth of 13 percent for the summer of 2022 compared to the previous year.
Cities recover more slowly
City tourism has suffered more from the pandemic than tourism in alpine regions. This is because tourists from Europe, but also from distant markets, are increasingly traveling to cities. Therefore, the recovery progresses more slowly than in alpine areas.
In addition, there is a significant proportion of business tourism, which had almost completely disappeared during the pandemic. BAK Economics expects 15 percent fewer business tourists as a legacy of the pandemic.
There are significant differences between Swiss cities. At the beginning of the pandemic, Zurich and Geneva experienced around 20 percent more declines in overnight stays than Bern and Lausanne.
The reasons for this are the high proportion of tourists from long-distance markets and business travellers. The recovery is also progressing more slowly here.
Particularly affected: Lucerne
In Lucerne in particular, the number of overnight stays is increasing much more slowly than in the other cities. The majority of tourists in Lucerne usually come from China, whose government is still imposing strict corona measures. It is expected that the pre-crisis level will not be reached again until winter 2023/2024.
However, BAK Economics forecasts a general downward shift in Chinese guests of 10 to 15 percent. There are indications that regardless of Corona, the Chinese government could restrict travel options in the longer term in order to strengthen its own tourism industry.
One way to speed up the acceleration of urban recovery is to convert underutilized hotel beds into business hotels for leisure activities, says Benjamin Studer of BAK Economics.