Talk with Maischberger
Could dividing Ukraine end the war?
By Marko Schlichting
February 22, 2024, 5:48 a.m
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A division of Ukraine could end the war. That’s what the historian Mary Sarotte thinks. In the ARD talk show “Maischberger” she discusses the pitfalls of this idea with military expert Claudia Major.
The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost two years now. On February 24, 2022, the Russian army attacked the country on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The goal: to occupy Ukraine and overthrow the government within about two days. The country should disappear. The fact is: Russia has failed across the board. Ukraine exists, and so does its government. The war has been raging in this country for two years, the infrastructure has been destroyed, thousands of people have died on both sides.
German politicians demand that Ukraine must win the war. But this goal seems a long way off. That’s what political scientist Claudia Major says, who is a guest on the ARD talk show “Maischberger” this evening. The Ukrainian armed forces lack material, equipment, soldiers and money. “They will probably lose more and more areas this year that they liberated last year.” Western support is lacking in many parts and the year 2024 will be very difficult, predicts Major. According to Major, the supporting states ramped up their production too late and there will be no further offensive by Ukraine until the end of this year at the earliest.
Proposal for a quick end to the war
Soon peace negotiations? Claudia Major doesn’t believe it. “That presupposes that there is an interest in negotiations. And at the moment, if you look at the Russian positions, there is no interest in negotiations,” says the scientist. Russia doesn’t want a compromise, but rather to win the war and abolish Ukraine as an independent state.
A suggestion from the American historian Mary Sarotte may come at the right moment. In the magazine “Foreign Affairs” she proposed a division of Ukraine, similar to Germany after the Second World War. She is also a guest at “Maischberger”. “I have great respect for the Ukrainians, and I would like Ukraine to win,” she says on “Maischberger.” A division of Ukraine would not be ideal under the current conditions, but it would be the only feasible option among the options that are possible today. Sarotte: “Ukraine is defining a new front line that can be defended militarily. It will then join NATO within these borders, just like the Federal Republic did in the Cold War, but says we still hope for unity.”
Ukraine should become part of the West, with membership in NATO and the EU. Then she would have the opportunity to become militarily and economically strong, similar to West Germany. “This idea has the advantage: We create peace without Putin. Because I don’t think we can negotiate with Putin. (…) We say, this is the end for now and now this part comes into play NATO. On day
The pitfalls of the proposal
The idea sounds quite plausible at first, but it also has its pitfalls, which Claudia Major will talk about. First of all, it points to the brutal Russification of the occupied Ukrainian territories. Ukrainians are being deported from there, and so unification, unlike in Germany in 1990, will be very difficult. “Then these areas are lost,” said Major. On the other hand, she finds the discussion about Western Ukraine joining NATO “excellent”, but the expert doubts that all NATO states will ratify the accession. “At the moment that’s not the case,” says Major: “We saw last summer at the NATO conference in Vilnius that the USA and Germany didn’t want that and that they stopped a lot.”
But of course the attitude of the two NATO states can also change under new conditions. At least that’s how Sarotte sees it: “It’s better to have an end with horror than a horror without end. Then at least the fighting would be over.”