Tank showdown in Ramstein: Berlin’s evasive maneuvers end today

The military alliance on the side of Ukraine is meeting today at the US military base in Ramstein. For Germany it is the moment of truth: The decision as to whether the federal government will release “Leopard” deliveries and also provide its own battle tanks cannot be delayed any longer.

Olaf Scholz can rely on the loyalty of the Americans to the alliance. Irrespective of the frustration audible in Washington over the Chancellor’s hesitant stance on the issue of supplying main battle tanks to Ukraine, the US government is publicly keeping quiet about the German head of government. “The Germans understand very well what is at stake in Ukraine,” commented John Kirby, Communications Director of the National Security Council, on Germany’s Ukraine policy. “We are grateful for what they have provided and we are grateful that they are considering supplying main battle tanks – we’ll see what comes of it.”

Anyone reading this with a certain degree of confidence could trace it back to today’s upcoming summit of NATO countries and other Ukraine supporters in Ramstein, Rhineland-Palatinate. At the US military base there, the defense ministers want to decide on further aid for the country attacked by Russia from 10 a.m. They share the concern that the Kremlin is preparing another major offensive. According to a report in the Washington Post, CIA director William Burns traveled to a secret meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv last week to personally inform the Ukrainian president about what the US foreign intelligence service knows about the Russian attack plans.

Who is going it alone here?

So time is of the essence, also because the Ukrainian armed forces are gradually running out of ammunition, especially for their Soviet-built tanks. And so back to Scholz: The federal government is under enormous pressure that its allies Estonia, Great Britain, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Slovakia are demanding the joint delivery of battle tanks. France should also consider supplying its own Leclerc tanks. Great Britain is sending state-of-the-art Challenger 2 main battle tanks and the other states mentioned want to provide “Leopard 2” tanks made in Germany, for which they need approval from the country of manufacture.

The fact that Biden’s security adviser Kirby says the United States is “grateful” that Berlin is considering the “Leopard” deliveries also indicates corresponding expectations in Washington. Scholz’s mantra-like dictum that “there shouldn’t be any single-handed efforts” when it comes to arms deliveries to Ukraine and that all aid is coordinated becomes a dead end in argument: “Everyone is acting now and many are begging the German chancellor for export permits for ‘Leopard 2’, and Scholz says, ‘no going it alone’, while he is doing exactly that by refusing: going it alone,” says security expert Frank Sauer from the Bundeswehr University in Munich in an interview with ntv.de.

Is the “marten” scenario repeated?

In fact, the chancellor’s office is currently giving the impression of being driven: the alliance partners have been increasing their deliveries of materials for weeks because of the militarily precarious situation in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron put his supposedly “dear friend Olaf” under pressure with his apparently unilaterally decisive push to supply Ukraine with AMX-10 reconnaissance tanks: Within 48 hours, the Chancellor decided that after much hesitation, Germany would now give “Marder ” would supply infantry fighting vehicles after US President Joe Biden had assured him that he would in turn supply US Bradley-type infantry fighting vehicles.

Afterwards it became clear that Scholz and his then Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht were not at all prepared for such a decision. The “marten” had to be scraped together in a hurry. Lambrecht’s successor Boris Pistorius faces a similar dilemma. Not only does he have to announce in Ramstein whether Germany will allow other countries to export to the war zone, but whether Berlin itself is willing to do so. “My concern is that this has not been prepared,” says Green politician Anton Hofreiter in an interview with ntv.de. With a view to the course of the “Marder” decision, the chairman of the Bundestag’s Europe Committee adds: “Now there is a risk that exactly this scenario will be repeated with the ‘Leopard 2’.”

Total blockade unlikely

Pistorius does not have to make the decision five days after Scholz offered him the Lambrecht successor. So when in doubt, he meets them not only in consultation with, but at the behest of the Chancellery. The delivery of “Leopard 2” tanks from the Bundeswehr arsenal would be anything but trivial. The export is not enough. Complex logistics chains for maintenance and repairs have to be set up, while the German army is already operating at the limit due to a lack of personnel and equipment when it fulfills its NATO obligations, supports Ukraine with other important war equipment and also the complex and dangerous stabilization mission in Mali moves.

On the evening before the Ramstein meeting, Pistorius didn’t want to say whether Germany would deliver itself: “I’m pretty sure that we’ll get a decision on this in the next few days. But I can’t tell you today what that will look like. ” Approval for other “Leopard” users to hand over the tank to Ukraine is likely to have already been granted. “That will become clear in the next few hours or tomorrow morning,” Pistorius told ARD. Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck had already said that Germany should not stand in the way of this request by its allies.

Ukraine has hundreds of western tanks in prospect

Especially since the Ramstein meeting is not limited to the “Leopard” question. Before coming together, several countries made new delivery announcements. Although the USA does not want to supply its own battle tanks, as Scholz had hoped, they do send a total of 109 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and 90 Stryker wheeled tanks. Sweden wants to provide 50 infantry fighting vehicles. The alliance on the side of Ukraine is therefore substantially increasing military aid, especially if a three-digit number “Leopards” were to come together in the end.

But if everyone else goes all out, the chancellor will hardly be able to sustain a refusal of Bundeswehr tanks, either internally or externally. The Ukrainian government, which has repeatedly shown a good feeling for the domestic political debates in Germany, also increased the pressure on the eve of the Ramstein summit. President Selsenskyj said in his nightly video address: “If there is no political will on an issue, then you don’t have to look for excuses. Then you say: No! You don’t have to say that anything or anyone is not ready.”

source site-34