A peak in early 2023, before a dip by summer. The galloping inflation of the year 2022 will not (yet) slow down, the fault in particular of the planned increase in the price of heating at the beginning of the year. The range of income indexed (directly or not) to inflation being very broad, an overview of the increases that you can already anticipate.
Whose fault is it? The Covid-19 pandemic? War in Ukraine? Shortages? The energy crisis? Multiple causes and a domino effect? In fact, inflation for the year 2022, which INSEE estimates ultimately 5.3% compared to the year 2021, is unprecedented since the arrival of the euro. Measure not from one year to another but over a month (for example November 2022 compared to November 2021) the consumer price index reached 6.2%.
The rise in prices will even reach a new peak in January-February according to INSEE projections published on Thursday, December 15: 7%in January 2023 compared to January 2022, even if prices were already rising rapidly a year ago…
Smic: +1.81% in January before a further increase in the spring
The Smic increases, in a usual and automatic way, at the 1er January. By 1.81% precisely, 1353.07 euros net monthly salary. In France, the revaluation of the minimum wage is one of the few mechanical beings outside this annual cycle. As soon as inflation exceeds 2% compared to the last revaluation, a new one is triggered. Two exceptional increases took place in 2022, for a total increase of 6.6% between December 2021 and January 2023. You can already expect another exceptional increase in the spring of 2023. year, INSEE foresees a further possible revaluation, of at least 2%during the spring.
Smic: a salary increase of 24 euros net per month from January 1, 2023
Salary: towards an almost generalized (non-automatic) increase of 4%
Smic is automatic. Salaries, no. Nearly 3 out of 5 French companies still plan to make a general increase, of around 3%: a basic increase, therefore, to which is added individual gratification. And all the firms having worked on the subject believe that the 2023 increases will affect a wider range of salaries than usual. How many? 4% increase, or slightly more, on average. An average that concerns payroll, as Deloitte explains, which implies that some will benefit from increases that match or exceed inflation.
Pay rise 2023: How much can you negotiate in the face of over 6% inflation?
RSA, activity bonus, family allowances… As of April 1
The purchasing power law made it possible to give a major boost, in the summer of 2022, to all social benefits: +4%. The RSA, the activity bonus and all social benefits must increase automatically on April 1, 2023, as every year. The exceptional revaluation taking place during the year will be taken into account and therefore no rise in inflation should be expected. As an appendix to the social security budget, Bercy expects an increase in 1.7% in April, an estimate which remains to be confirmed but which will only be modified marginally since INSEE’s forecasts have generally come true in recent months.
| average inflation at the end of January* | Annual reset on April 1 | Early revaluation on July 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1.6% | 0.3% | – |
| 2020 | 0.9% | 0.3% | – |
| 2021 | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 2022 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 4% |
| 2023 (estimate) | 5.7% | 1.7% | – |
* Measure of inflation used for the revaluation of family benefits, ie the average over 12 months stopped in January of the year of revaluation, compared to that of the 12 previous months.
Source: report of the Social Security Accounts Commission – results for 2021 and forecasts for 2022-2023
RSA, activity bonus, family allowances: towards an increase of 1.7% in April 2023
Basic pension: +0.8% in January 2023?
Same principle as for social benefits but with a different calendar: your basic retirement pension increases each year in January. This year, the State is logically taking into account the anticipated increase in 4% this summer Result: on the basis of the mathematical calculation, based on the inflation of the last 12 months stopped in October 2022, the Cnav should increase the basic pension by 0.8% in January. An increase which will be visible on February 9, the day of payment of the basic pension in January 2023. Contacts, Bercy and the Minister of Labor have not yet confirmed this rate of revaluation.
| average inflation end of October* | Annual reset on January 1 | Early revaluation on July 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 0.9% | 0.3% | – |
| 2020 | 0.2% | 0.3% (1% for pensions less than 2000) | – |
| 2021 | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 2022 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 4% |
| 2023 (estimate) | 4.8% | 0.8% | – |
* Measure of inflation used for the revaluation of basic pensions, ie the average over 12 months stopped in October of the year preceding the revaluation, compared to that of the 12 previous months.
Source: report of the Social Security Accounts Commission – results for 2021 and forecasts for 2022-2023
Supplementary pensions are increasing at a different rate: the Agirc-Arrco pension has thus increased by 5.12% in November. We will now have to wait until next fall to take advantage of a new rise.
Minimum old age: +0.8% in January?
Following the anticipated increase of last summer, the solidarity allowance for the elderly (ASPA), or minimum old age, reaches a maximum of 953.45 euros monthly for a single person and 1480.24 euros for a couple. This allowance, during the RSA for seniors, varies if you have additional income. The revaluation follows the same rhythm as the basic retirement, so very probably 0.8% in January.
Housing allowances: next fall…
The APL were revalued by 3.5% (the same rate used for the rent shield supposed to protect tenants from excessive increases) last summer. Associations and politicians from several parties proposed a further increase in early 2023, but this measure was not retained in the budget. Unless there is a political decision, the next revaluation will take place at the usual annual deadline, on 1 October.
INTERVIEW. Retirement, rent, RSA, APL… The perverse effects of inflation-indexed revaluations
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Property tax 2023: +7.1%, minimum
Are you the owner? Do you know the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP)? With the return of inflation, you will probably hear about it more regularly. It is on the basis of this index calculated by INSEE, which does not take into account the cost of housing for owners, that the basis for calculating your property tax is calculated each year. More precisely on the basis of the November HICP, which was revealed by INSEE yesterday: +7.1%.
Clearly: if your city or intermunicipality does not modify its tax rate, then your property tax will increase by more than 7%. During the examination of the 2023 budget, several amendments aimed to limit this increase, but the government chose to leave the hands entirely to the municipalities.
Local taxes: bad news for your 2023 property tax
Income tax: the scale is progressing to avoid an increase
Counter intuitive. The revaluation of the bar increases… to save you from paying more. This year, let’s take a single person whose income places him in the upper middle class. In 2022, with 27,000 euros of annual taxable income, part of his income is taxed at 30%, since he exceeds the threshold of the 30% bracket set this year at 26,070 euros. Next year, the scale thresholds will be raised by 5.4%, as provided for in the 2023 budget. This threshold will therefore increase to 27,478 euros. Result: if this single person declares the same salary next year, he will not exceed the 30% mark. He will therefore pay slightly less tax. Unless his income also increases, of course…
| Income bracket per tax share | Applicable rate for the tranche |
|---|---|
| Up to 10777 | 0% |
| From 10777 27478 | 11% |
| From 27478 78570 | 30% |
| From 78570 168994 | 41% |
| Over 168994 | 45% |
Barme revalued on the basis of an annual inflation of 5.4%.
Provisional scale, subject to adoption of the finance bill for 2023.
Income tax: how much less will you pay in 2023 thanks to the new scale?
Livret A, LEP, PEL… Increase program for January and February
You are not or little taxable? Do you know that you are probably entitled to the one and only guaranteed capital investment, totally tax-free, whose return follows inflation? The popular savings account will increase to 6.2% in February 2023! Following the latest estimates from INSEE, this estimate (made by MoneyVox) has a good chance of being confirmed in mid-January by Bercy. As for the Livret A, its rate is expected to be 3.3% in February, the rate of the Housing Savings Plan rising to 2% from January 1, 2023.
Livret A, LEP, LDDS: the 2023 rate increases are becoming clearer, and they are breathtaking!