The next drama is brewing in Washington. Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, could lose his job after just a few months in office. Trump supporter Taylor-Greene is threatening this. Of all people, the Democrats could help the Republican.
If there is one politician in the USA that hardly anyone would want to trade places with, it is Mike Johnson. The Republican is Speaker of the House of Representatives and has only been in office since last November. But it could soon be over again. His own party colleagues are stabbing the 52-year-old man from Louisiana in the back, especially Marjorie Taylor-Greene – a strident Trump supporter who seems primarily interested in rioting. She requested a vote to remove him last Friday. His alleged crime: He is said to have made too many compromises with the Democrats.
The impending drama has something of a déjà vu: last fall, a similar dispute kept Washington, the USA and parts of the world in suspense. Not least because there was and is a global political dimension. It is also a question of whether and how quickly additional billions in aid will be approved for Ukraine. At that time, the Republicans for the first time deposed the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who was then called Kevin McCarthy. Also a Republican, mind you – but one who was not loyal enough to Trump in the eyes of the majority of Republicans. Painfully long weeks passed before Mike Johnson’s successor was finally elected. Just like a year ago with McCarthy himself, who also needed several rounds of voting until enough Republicans voted for him.
One could dismiss this as a repetitive farce from the depths of Washington politics – if there wasn’t so much at stake. Johnson plays a key role in approving aid to Ukraine. As Speaker of the House of Representatives, he determines what is put on the agenda and therefore what is decided on. The parliament, which is similar to the German Bundestag in the US system, must approve the large legislative packages for Ukraine aid just like the Senate – although, roughly speaking, the Senate has a similar role to the German Bundesrat.
Johnson too willing to compromise
The aid to Ukraine is now once again the stumbling block for Taylor-Greene. She claimed after her request for a vote that she didn’t want to plunge the house into chaos. “But this is ultimately a warning,” she added. The Republicans would have to find a speaker who would be on the side of the Republicans and not the Democrats. Johnson had just approved a budget law that prevented a budget shutdown. Actually, he had just done his job, negotiated with the opposition and found a compromise.
Apparently too much for Taylor-Greene. Now she wants to prevent Johnson from doing something similar with aid to Ukraine. They have long since become a plaything in Washington politics. On the one hand, the Republicans tried to connect it with the border issue. They demanded more money for anti-immigrant measures at the southern border before they would agree. But when the Democrats came to meet them and an agreement was ready to be signed, Trump intervened and put his thumb down – he doesn’t have any office, but his word is still law for most Republicans. The agreement collapsed. Presumably so that the problem is not solved and Trump can continue to campaign with it.
With the request for a vote, Johnson’s fate hangs in the balance. There is no date yet and that is exactly what Taylor-Greene wanted. She could call for the vote when she feels the time is right. She wants to bring Johnson into line with this. The question, however, is which line actually. Because the Republican faction is hopelessly divided. There are Trump hardliners, there are moderates and some in between. That’s exactly why MPs took so long to agree on a speaker the last two times.
Taylor-Greene’s maneuver could backfire anyway. Of all people, the rival Democrats may be willing to keep Mike Johnson in office. Several MPs have already expressed their openness to this. The man from Louisiana is extremely conservative, loyal to Trump and actually has nothing in common with them – but valuable time would be lost again looking for a new speaker. But the Democrats know that this time would ultimately play into Putin’s hands. Johnson has also shown that he is at least somewhat willing to compromise on the Ukraine issue.
Or will it end up being a Democrat?
There’s a good chance they’ll actually save Johnson. Nobody believes that the Republicans are united in rejecting their own speaker. On the contrary, several Republicans have already openly criticized Taylor-Greene. But since the Democrats have almost as many seats as the Republicans, only a handful of Republicans would have to stick with Johnson. That’s almost certain.
Another scenario would even be conceivable: that a Democrat would become Speaker of the House. The already very narrow majority of Republicans has recently shrunk further. Two MPs recently announced their early departure. This means that 216 votes are now required for a majority. But the Republicans only have 217 left. This might still be manageable for a united, disciplined faction. But if there’s one thing Republicans in the House of Representatives aren’t, it’s united and disciplined.
The Democrats have 214 seats – so they are only two Republican defectors short of a majority. That would mean the end of their career, but some MPs want to quit at the end of the legislature anyway. Taylor-Greene has had to put up with questions about it. She denied that it would be her fault if a Democrat got the job.
One could now blame Trump’s work in the background for this Capitol chaos. But not even he was able to get a speaker through last fall. He said at the time that only Jesus Christ could actually be Speaker of the House of Representatives. So far events have not disproved him.