It’s been a long time: Elon Musk has indulged in a new prediction about autonomous driving at Tesla. According to him, the deadline for the end of 2023 is plausible for a driving level 4 or 5. But, given the liabilities of the entrepreneur on this ground, caution is in order.
He had ventured to predict the arrival of autonomous driving at Tesla for 2014. Wrongly. Then, he repeated his divination exercise almost every following year: in 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and in 2022. Each time, his estimate was wrong. However, these systematic failures did not deter Elon Musk from slowing down.
Level 4 or 5 autonomous driving at Tesla in 2023?
In 2022, the boss of the American car manufacturer predicted the arrival of autonomous driving for this year. A deadline that the entrepreneur repeated once again this summer, reports the specialized site Electrek on July 6, 2023. Our colleagues point out, however, that the entrepreneur brought a kind of nuance: it was a question of level 4 driving or 5.
” However, it is not certain that he knows what this means. “However, tackled the American media in a comment that was murderous to say the least. The autonomy of a vehicle is evaluated according to a grid divided into several levels. The closer the car gets to level 5, the more it handles driving on its own, taking on increasing tasks in place of the person behind the wheel.
At level 4, autonomous driving alone manages acceleration, braking and the steering wheel on certain roads. It takes into account the traffic with the sensors deployed on the vehicle and monitors the surroundings to deal with any unforeseen events. All this, without having to give control back to the motorist. At level 5, the on-board system does the same thing, but on all roads.
If the art of divination eludes Elon Musk, the fact is that Tesla is still moving towards 100% autonomous driving – like the automotive industry in general. The manufacturer has progressed since it embarked on this project, through the collection of a lot of data to train its systems. Today, Tesla evolves between levels 2 and 3.
Electrek also points out that Tesla and Elon Musk have changed their vocabulary from time to time when talking about self-driving goals. So while the initial promise was clear (a car driving entirely on its own to a level safer than humans), the goals have since seemed to fluctuate, with lesser and more hazy ambitions.
Given Elon Musk’s history in this area, Tesla’s forecasts for the next six months should be taken with great caution. Certainly, the billionaire will probably end up being right if he continues to make predictions each year for the following year. After all, even a broken clock gives the correct time twice a day.
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