Thais reject ruling military in legislative elections

The Thais inflicted a severe defeat on the military in power for almost a decade, during the legislative elections on Sunday, May 14, which propelled the two pro-democracy opposition parties to the lead, ready to negotiate to form a government coalition.

The Move Forward party, whose progressive rhetoric echoes the massive protests of 2020 calling for a sweeping overhaul of the monarchy, is set to become the main force in the next parliament.

But, from the reform of the harsh law on the crime of lèse-majesté to the end of compulsory conscription, his program deemed radical can create new tensions with the military-royalist elite which retains influence within the institutions. .

In a kingdom where the interventions of the army and justice have often disrupted the democratic process, observers fear a scenario that would limit the expected alternation, to the benefit of the military.

Move Forward in first position

Millions of voters went to the polls for an election marked by the rejection of outgoing Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha, who came to power after a coup in 2014, then legitimized in 2019 by controversial elections.

Based on the counting of the ballots in 97% of the polling stations, Move Forward comes first, with more than 13.5 million votes (out of 52 million voters).

Behind, the opposition Pheu Thai party of Paethongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of the former prime minister in exile, Thaksin Shinawatra, won 10.3 million votes. Ex-general Prayuth Chan-o-cha won 4.5 million votes, under the banner of the United Thai Nation (UTN) party, in third position. Final official results are not expected for several weeks.

In the night from Sunday to Monday, the electoral commission gives Move Forward (113 deputies) a slight lead over Pheu Thai (112), out of the 400 constituencies at stake. The 100 other deputies are elected proportionally.

At first glance, Move Forward signs a resounding victory. The party associated with the color orange, which claims to be the standard bearer of youth, was able to capitalize on the energy of the massive demonstrations which had shaken Bangkok.

Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, estimated that his movement would win 160 seats, a surprise score which ” close the door “ to the hypothesis of a minority pro-army government.

A government agreement with Pheu Thai ” is on the table “confirmed the young candidate, 42 years old. “We can work together”replied the star candidate of Pheu Thai, Paethongtarn Shinawatra, 36 years old.

“We are ready to talk to Move Forward, but we are waiting for the official results”continued the one who claimed a “electoral tidal wave” to gain power, nine years after the coup that overthrew Yingluck Shinawatra, his aunt.

Support in rural and poor areas

The complex electoral system, concocted by the army, forced Move Forward and Pheu Thai to win a large majority in parliament or to form a coalition. Indeed, the opposition needs 376 seats out of the 500 in the National Assembly to counterbalance the influence of the 250 senators appointed by the army. It is enough for the pro-army camp of 126 deputies to ensure a majority in the vote of the Prime Minister, chosen by the two chambers.

Sunday’s poll was the first nationwide to be held since massive protests in 2020, which shook the taboo of Thailand’s monarchy square where King Maha Vajiralongkorn enjoys near-deity status. These protests, which have diminished in intensity under the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the repression of the authorities, have nevertheless fueled the dynamism of Move Forward.

While Move Forward relies on a young electorate, Pheu Thai has mobilized its supporters in the rural and poor territories of the north and northeast, which benefited from the pioneering redistribution policies of Thaksin when he was in power, between 2001 and 2006.

Prayuth Chan-o-cha (69), self-proclaimed guardian of institutions, relied on his experience. As soon as the first unfavorable results for his camp were announced, he left his party’s headquarters with his head bowed. “I will continue to do my best, no matter the result”he told reporters.

Its record remains tarnished by a sluggish recovery from the pandemic, which economists attribute in part to the failing structure of an economy lacking reform. Human rights groups have accused him of carrying out a large-scale crackdown on leaders of pro-democracy protests, misusing the law against the crime of lèse-majesté for political purposes.

Thailand has experienced a dozen coups since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932. The last twenty years have been marked by a succession of protests in the streets, military putsches and dissolutions of parties in court.