More than 20 years. The citizens of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been protesting against the repressive regime for so long. And yet there is still no democracy in Iran. The fight seems hopeless.
On September 16, 2022, Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian woman, died. The moral police had stopped her because her headscarf had slipped. She was allegedly mistreated in detention and succumbed to her injuries. The regime speaks of a heart attack.
Since then, people in Iran have been protesting. And the government shows no mercy in crushing the protests. We spoke to a local woman who, for fear of the possible consequences, does not want to be identified: «Demonstrators disappear, are arrested, tortured and murdered – some in the middle of the street, some in prisons of some kind. Families don’t hear from their children for days and weeks, and don’t know where they are or if they are still alive. If they are then informed where they can collect the bodies of their children or relatives, they are severely threatened to hide the fact that their relatives died in the protests. This is how false confessions are coerced.»
The protest movement is different from that of the years before. First, because women led them. On the other hand, because they represent broad sections of the population, explains Maryam Moqaddam, a journalist with the television channel Iran International, which broadcasts from Great Britain: «The middle class has not been so numerous on the streets since 2009. It’s not just the fringes of society. It’s the rich, it’s the middle class, it’s the fringes – you can see the anger in very different districts of Tehran.»
But so far no protest movement has been able to overthrow the regime. The Revolutionary Guards are doing their job.
Since 1989, one man has been responsible for the Iranian apparatus of repression: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s revolutionary leader. Among other things, he is responsible for the armed forces. In Iran, they consist of the army, the police – including the religious police – and the Revolutionary Guards. The Revolutionary Guards only have one job: They ensure that there are no uprisings and opposing political movements. So Iran has its own force whose only job is to keep the regime in power with physical force.
Within the Revolutionary Guard there is one militia that is particularly feared: the Basij. The Basij is a volunteer militia that has a local branch in almost every Iranian city, so its eyes and ears are everywhere, and has played a central role in cracking down on protests since 2009. Moqaddam: «From its inception, the Islamic Republic began to build militias. There are different ones, the main ones are the Revolutionary Guards and they have a paramilitary unit called Basij. These are the most powerful tools available to the Islamic Republic regime. They are the mighty arms of the Islamic Republic.»
One researcher estimates that the Basij has around 50,000 bases and at least 4 million members – in a country of around 85 million people.
Many of the Basiji (as the individual members are called) are employed by the state or in state-related companies. So they have an immediate self-interest in the regime staying in place. Moqaddam: «If you are in power, you have oil, money and guns – why would you lay down your arms? If they actually did that, the Islamic Republic would be dead in no time.»
The militia is particularly attractive to poorer sections of the population: there are bonus payments, access to credit is easier, and even a certain percentage of university places are reserved for the Basiji. «Many young people between 16 and 24 are unemployed. There is a financial incentive for many. And they are indoctrinated. The Islamic Republic tries to indoctrinate people in schools, universities and mosques», explains Moqaddam.
In addition to the Basij, the Revolutionary Guards have their own ground troops, an air force and a navy unit, as well as the Kuds unit for foreign operations, whose commander Kassem Soleimani was killed in Iraq in 2020.
The Revolutionary Guards have a significant impact on Iran’s already struggling economy. They hold shares in more than a hundred companies from different sectors, and former members often hold high positions in the state. Moqaddam: «In the last three, four decades, especially the last three, the Revolutionary Guards have started to invest in the economy. So not only do they have military power, but they are heavily invested in the Iranian economy. You have a lot of money. A large part of the economy of the Islamic Republic is in their hands. It’s about oil, gas, state projects – all of that is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. You are the system. They are the foundation of the Islamic Republic.»
The network of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basiji extends across the country in politics, economy and society and is the factor that guarantees stability for the Islamic hard-line regime. Those who want to overthrow the regime fight against this very network. This is all the more difficult as the opposition in Iran is not really organized. “Death to the dictator” may be an understandable wish under the circumstances, but what comes after that?
«We hope for free, fair, transparent and accessible elections in Iran, with the full support of the United Nations in conducting them, and election observers from the EU and other international organizations with experience in the field. We also hope to be able to draw up a new constitution», according to the witness from Iran.
But the opposition has no leaders, no party, no political program. They are united by no alternative vision for Iran. Difficult conditions for a revolution.