the 6% rate has never been so in danger

This Thursday, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) published the inflation figures for the month of November. And it slows down sharply, going from 4% over one year in October to 3.4% in November. This is positive news for the purchasing power of consumers but which should have an unfavorable impact on the rate of the Popular Savings Booklet (LEP).

The rise in consumer prices is slowing down. According to a provisional estimate, it increased by 3.4% in November over one year, after +4% in October. This drop in inflation would be due to the slowdown over one year in the prices of services, energy and, to a lesser extent, manufactured products and food, explains INSEE.

We are emerging from the inflationary crisis, the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire congratulated on France Inter. According to him, France will even be below 4% inflation by the end of the year. Good news for consumers’ purchasing power. But this decline risks affecting the remuneration of the LEP.

The LEP rate low on the evolution of inflation

Indeed, the rate of the Popular Savings Book (LEP) is revised in January and July, depending on the evolution of the average increase in prices excluding tobacco during the previous semester. Thus, for the remuneration of the LEP, currently 6%, to remain at this level during the next revision, announced in mid-January 2024 by the Banque de France for application on February 1, average inflation would have to increase. maintains around 6% over the second half of this year.

This will not be the case. Based on the figures published this Thursday by INSEE, and its forecasts for the end of the year, average inflation between July and December will be barely above 4.2%. In other words, the LEP rate should be 4.20% from February 1. A drop of 1.8 points compared to current remuneration.

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A technical LEP rate of 4.2%

The Bank of France has the power to counter this development. It can, in fact, propose to the government to slow down the decline, to support popular savings and continue its efforts to promote the LEP among the 18 million people eligible for this investment. At present, the number of open LEPs slightly exceeds the 10 million mark. More than 8 million individuals therefore do not benefit from the LEP even though they are entitled to it.

The Banque de France could propose increasing the LEP rate to 4.5% for example, and not 4.2%. This is what it had already done last July, by increasing the LEP rate from 6.1% to 6%. However, this was to decrease further.

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