Did the tax reforms at the start of Macron’s first five-year term encourage the wealthiest to invest less taxed sums in the economy, thus indirectly benefiting all French people? The question continues to haunt the second term of the Head of State, as shown by the electric debates held in the Assembly during the examination of the 2023 budget. In an attempt to answer it, the committee of assessment of capital tax reforms was to publish, Thursday, October 20, the 2022 version of its work on the effects of the abolition of the solidarity tax on wealth (ISF), replaced in 2018 by a wealth tax real estate (IFI), and the introduction of the single fixed levy (PFU or “flat tax”) of 30% on capital income (interest, dividends, etc.).
The findings, again, do little for the government. “The observation of major economic variables – growth, investment, household financial investment flows, etc. – before and after the reforms is not enough to conclude on the real effect of these reforms. In particular, it is not possible to estimate by this means alone whether the abolition of the ISF has allowed a reorientation of the savings of the taxpayers concerned towards the financing of companies.concludes the committee’s opinion, that The world was able to consult. That is, word for word, the same sentence as in the 2021 report.
Once is not custom, it is a brief analysis note produced by this committee made up of economists, representatives of Insee or even social partners, and which has already submitted three reports since 2019. The latest research work having only been launched this summer, France Strategy, the evaluation and forecasting body attached to Matignon which coordinates the committee, has undertaken an update of the available data based on elements of the Banque de France or the General Directorate of Public Finance.
Tax exile has slowed down
What confirms that the dividends received by people eligible for the PFU exploded from 2018, remaining since then at an almost stable level. Even in 2020, a year of recession due to the coronavirus, they reached 23.6 billion euros (compared to 24.2 billion in 2019 and 14.3 billion in 2017). “This money does not come from nowhere, says Laurent Bach, researcher at the Institute of Public Policy, professor at Essec and co-author of previous reports. For entrepreneurs or the great fortunes of the country, it was already often in bank accounts, housed in holding companies instead of giving rise to immediate taxation. » Incidentally, the committee refutes the idea that certain taxpayers (liberal professions, business executives) would escape tax by paying themselves in dividends part of what they previously received in salary: “Households whose dividends have grown very strongly (…) have on average not reduced their earned income. »
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