QWhat are the consequences of wars for the economy? Research shows that, apart from the disastrous short-term effects in terms of human losses and destruction, the long-term impact on growth is neutral, even positive. On the other hand, few studies analyze the long-term effects on the physical and psychological health, not only of former soldiers but also of civilians, their families and their descendants.
This is the whole point of the study carried out by two Japanese and Vietnamese economists on the long-term effects of the spraying of Agent Orange by the American air force during the Vietnam War on the predisposition of populations affected to develop disabilities (Long-Term Effects of Vietnam War: Agent Orange and the Health of Vietnamese People After 30 YearsTrong-Anh Trinh and Nobuaki Yamashita, Asian Economic Journaln°36/2, June 2022).
In total, according to data from the US Department of Defense, to which the authors had access, more than 75 million liters of herbicides were dumped on approximately a quarter of the territory of South Vietnam, between 1961 and 1971. Among them, Agent Orange (containing dioxin) was the one most used by the US military during the war. One of its specificities is its very long chemical life. Its effects are persistent, once it has been absorbed into the ecosystem; the transfer to humans then takes place mainly through the consumption of organic matter.
Among the many dramatic health effects of dioxin exposure seen in Vietnam, including those born after the war, include cancer and diabetes, but also birth defects such as spina bifida ( spinal abnormality), cognitive impairment, and missing or deformed limbs.
Vulnerable groups
To carry out their study, the authors compare geographically very precise American data on the spreading of Agent Orange with Vietnamese data from the 2009 population census, which include information on the predisposition of handicaps in individuals. They focus on the cohorts born after the end of the war (1975) in rural areas, and compare the heavily affected regions and those less affected, which allows them to better identify the persistent effects linked to the agent orange from the other more direct consequences of the war. Another difficulty in carrying out this research is the migration of populations: this is why they focus on individuals who have not moved recently, and on ethnic minorities, who are less mobile.
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