Losses and profits. Nation of Descartes, France wants to be the country of reason. By presenting, on Tuesday April 27, his national recovery plan eligible for European aid, Bruno Le Maire also described it as” adult “. No more childishness: France and Europe will now rely on their own strengths to build a future. “Sustainable, fair, ecological and united”. With, as proof of this maturity, the joint presentation of the French and German plans, during the same press conference. The plan of Paris therefore looks like a French garden of 727 pages well ordered in three priorities and nine components. What does it come out of?
First, as announced, this is not a backup plan, in the short term. It is not intended to support the economy to prevent it from sinking. For this, the French government has used other tools, such as partial unemployment, direct aid to small and very large companies, even semi-nationalizations, as in the case of Air France. Thanks to this device set up in record time, the apocalypse did not take place. The plan promises something else. Moreover, its original matrix, presented in September 2020 and from which the Brussels version is extracted, promises to “Building the France of 2030”.
No new taxes
Does it meet this ambition? Certifying it is not easy since it is not accompanied by a detailed analysis of French delays. Let us list four commonly accepted: education, health, state efficiency and industry. The plan focuses on the traditional beneficiaries of the recovery – construction, transport – but also includes the Ségur for health and measures to combat deindustrialisation. Let us note a particular and very daring effort: the establishment, jointly with Germany, of a complete hydrogen sector. University, research and state reform, on the other hand, will wait.
Finally, this plan is not funded. Unlike its Pharaonic American equivalent, it does not include any new taxes. It even removes some, with the disappearance of 10 billion euros per year of very penalizing production taxes for the industry. The restoration of finances and the reduction of the debt, ardently requested by Brussels, will be patient until the end of this decade, if the miracle happens. One might nevertheless wonder whether, like the United States, it would not be justified for the beneficiaries of the stock market asset bubble caused by the policy of the central banks to be able to return some of this quickly earned money on the back of crisis. The apocalypse did not happen, but it will take more than a plan to revive France.