Lhe Middle East, a great provider of historical turning points, has just offered us one more: for the first time, on the night of Saturday April 13 to Sunday April 14, Tehran deviated from its policy of waging war on Israel by militias interposed and launched an assault on its own territory. But the “Honest Promise”, such is the name of the operation, failed pitifully. Almost all of the approximately 350 projectiles of all types and calibers – cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones – were intercepted before reaching Israeli territory. Only four passed through the dense air defense network and caused minor damage to the Nevatim base in the south of the country, which houses the air force’s F-35 aircraft. A little Bedouin girl was injured by shrapnel. And that’s all.
Thus, on the military level, if intelligence once again failed to correctly predict the reaction of the adversary – in this case, the risks incurred after the assassination, on 1er April, in Damascus, of General of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and six of his officers – the IDF still showed what it was capable of and succeeded in restoring its deterrent force.
In the immediate future, the American administration, as well as the British and French governments, are trying to prevent Israel from retaliating against Iranian aggression or, at least, from retaliating thoughtlessly. In such a scenario, in fact, Hezbollah could come to the rescue of its Iranian boss, which, step by step, would risk provoking a major regional war.
American pressure
A development of this nature would have catastrophic repercussions from the American point of view. Russia, already a major beneficiary of the Gaza war, which diverted Western attention – and resources – from its own war in Ukraine, would benefit greatly from a widespread conflict in the Middle East. Better still, Joe Biden’s chances of re-election in November would be affected; what a wonderful gift for Vladimir Putin, the accession to the presidency of Donald Trump!
In short, it would be preferable for Israel to refrain from reacting. The Iranians themselves have publicly stated that they consider the incident closed. The Israelis have proven that their security capabilities are intact and their alliances strong. One more operation would add nothing to their deterrence, if not to the glory of their army. However, it is likely that, for mainly political reasons, they will consider that they will not be able to do nothing.
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