On do not turn the tide like that. Consumer demand for motor vehicles, a guarantee of independence and freedom, should not slow down before 2040. At least this is the estimate made by a forecasting institute, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), which sees a continued growth in sales worldwide until 2036. Thermal or electric, it doesn’t matter, the vehicle fleet should reach 1.5 billion passenger vehicles on the ground in 2039.
For a world population estimated at 9 billion individuals at the same time, the rate of equipment would thus represent an average of 1 vehicle for 6 inhabitants. With strong disparities between westernized and multi-motorized countries and those which will always be in the process of development, which will still rely on other means of transport. With, like what has happened on other continents, a strong aspiration to equip oneself one day, an outward sign of success.
Was this dimension taken into account by the BNEF study? It seems that the institute is counting above all on the decrease in the supply of fossil fuels, which will not be fully offset by the rise in sales of electric vehicles. Totally unsuited to these underprivileged countries, they may explain a decline in the supply of Western vehicles, but certainly not a drop in supply from Asians who will have it both ways: electric in developed countries, thermal for the others. While, at the same time, Europe has decided to only address customers in developed countries with a uniform offer of electric vehicles.
A century of growth
Regardless of the technology used and hoping that the current shortage of electronic components ceases to relaunch production, sales should recover and continue to grow worldwide until 2036. They should be above 100 million vehicles per year, according to the BNEF scenario. On this date, demand should decline, putting an end to the almost continuous growth of the sector for more than a century.
Indeed, according to BNEF experts, we should witness a paradigm shift with the aging of the population. A major consumer of new vehicles, this should give way to younger customers, more urban dwellers and experienced in other means of transport imposed by the size and congestion of megalopolises.
The rise of shared and autonomous cars, in particular, will nevertheless make them consume cars, but in a different way. Not to mention those who, no longer finding their reason to live in these urban pressure cookers, will definitely flee to the countryside… and buy one or more cars as needed. For the same reasons, the inhabitants of poorer countries, who drive much less, could nevertheless, out of vital necessity, continue to equip themselves. On the other hand, according to the study, in Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey or South Africa, the inhabitants of megalopolises could prefer two-wheelers or public transport.