What impact will winter weather have on military operations in Ukraine? While the first frosts have appeared in the north of the country and the rain is falling further south, military experts are wondering about the risk of maneuvers slowing down as winter approaches and about the profit that the two belligerents might – or might not – get away with it. “Winter reinforces the viscosity of the environment in which the forces evolve, whether on land or in the air. This necessarily has consequences on the battlefield.assures Yohann Michel, researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
In theory, winter conditions primarily benefit the defender. The rain and mud indeed make it more difficult to move armored vehicles and guns, especially those mounted on wheels, such as the French Caesars used by the Ukrainians. Not to mention the traces they leave in a ground that has become spongy, which makes them more easily detectable by enemy observation means, in particular drones, which only have to follow the furrows up to the place where the shield hides.
Despite their tracks, heavy tanks can also be hampered by too soft ground, where the instruction manuals advise against engaging them. The misfortune had happened to the Russian T-72 and T-80, forced to remain on the roads during the attack on kyiv at the beginning of the year, which had left them vulnerable to Ukrainian fire from portable anti-tank missiles such as the Javelin or the NLAW.
Phenomenon of “rasputitsa”
The wind or fog observed in autumn and winter also limits the use of drones, which the belligerents have made intensive use of since the start of the conflict. If the most powerful military machines are able to fly in degraded conditions, civilian observation drones, used by both Ukrainians and Russians, do not have the same capabilities, which should reduce the accuracy of strikes artillery but also the detection of enemy movements. “Winter will partly blind the two armies”believes a French military source.
In this light, the phenomenon of rasputitsa, which transforms the Ukrainian soils into quagmires each year, in the fall during heavy rains and in the spring during the thaw, should primarily favor the Russian forces, today essentially confined to defensive positions. Conversely, it should limit Ukrainian manoeuvres, particularly in the regions of Kherson and Kharkiv, where the counter-offensives of troops from kyiv are concentrated. “Mud makes it more difficult to exploit breakthroughs in the field”confirms Yohann Michel.
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