The Banque de France on Monday doubled its growth forecast for the year 2023 and now expects a 0.6% increase in gross domestic product (GDP), against 0.3% growth envisaged in its previous published projections. in December.
On the inflation front, the central bank lowers its forecast for 2023 and expects food price increases to peak towards the end of the first half, according to Matthieu Lemoine, one of the authors of the 2023-2025 macroeconomic projections. of the central bank publish on Monday.
Prices would then increase more slowly, thanks to the easing planned for the price of agricultural inputs (…) and the international prices of agricultural raw materials, explains the Banque de France.
These forecasts of activity and inflation are nonetheless dependent on numerous uncertainties.
The indirect effects of the recent banking and financial volatility are being closely monitored, as recent events caused by the closure of the Silicon Valley Bank in the United States or the uncertainty surrounding Credit Suisse have reminded us, she explains. .
The difficulties of the American and Swiss banks have indeed caused chaotic sessions on the European financial markets, including the Paris Stock Exchange.
These contingencies aside, the Banque de France is counting on a marked upturn in growth in 2024 (1.2% as anticipated in its previous forecasts) and in 2025 (1.7% against 1.8%).
For the year 2023, the central bank justifies the doubling of its growth forecast by lower inflation (particularly energy) than expected, and higher growth in world demand addressed to France.
However, these good surprises are offset by the country’s financial environment, with exchange rates and borrowing rates less positive than in December.
Even with an increase, the growth forecast for 2023 remains lower than that of the OECD (0.7%, up 0.1 point on Friday) and the government (1%).
The recovery phase should start again clearly in 2024, thanks to the pick-up in household consumption.
The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) – the inflation barometer which refers to the European level and which the Banque de France uses in its projections – should stand at 5.4% on annual average in 2023, against 6 % expected so far.
The HICP would then fall 2.4% in 2024 then 1.9% in 2025, below the 2% mark corresponding to the inflation target of the European Central Bank (ECB).
Reproduction forbidden.