The Banque de France envisages “very slight” growth in the 4th quarter in France

The French economy could finally observe a “very slight increase” in its GDP in the fourth quarter and not stagnation as initially expected, the Banque de France said on Wednesday, insisting however on the “very strong uncertainty” linked to the international context.

“In a very uncertain context, but given this uncertainty today (…), we expect a very slight increase in GDP in the fourth quarter,” said Olivier Garnier, Director General of Statistics, Studies and International. within the Bank of France.

“At this stage (…) we are rather leaning towards a small positive hazard compared to our initial forecast of zero growth in the fourth quarter”, he added during a presentation, without however quantifying this new forecast.

According to him, the geopolitical situation but also the impact of the weather on energy supplies pose many uncertainties on growth.

However, according to the monthly business survey conducted among companies, the latter remain relatively confident about their level of activity.

“Activity continues to show resilience in October and companies expect in November (…) a small increase in their activity, with in the case of construction stability rather than an increase”, explained Olivier Garnier, recalling the three phases anticipated by the Banque de France for French growth: “resilience, slowdown and recovery in 2024”.

The institution’s survey, which questioned around 8,500 companies between the end of October and the beginning of November, points to two points of improvement, supply difficulties and the pace of price increases, which both remain at high levels. but do not increase.

Neobanks: the cheapest offers to control your budget

The order books of companies remain “well stocked”, but the difficulties of recruitment, if they “no longer increase”, also remain significant.

The Banque de France, however, warns of cash flow difficulties, in particular for industrial companies, “with a deterioration which is confirmed”.

The institution has also begun to question companies on the impact of the energy situation on their activity and their margins. It is currently limited, with only 7% of companies having observed a strong impact on their activity in October, but the concern is strong for the next three months.

source site-96