This slight growth should be due to the resilience of companies, in a context of great uncertainty linked in particular to the energy crisis.
The French economy is resisting: activity measured by the evolution of GDP should grow very slightly, by 0.1%, in the fourth quarter in a context of great uncertainty linked in particular to the energy crisis, indicated Thursday 8 December the Banque de France. This “good news“, according to the institution, relies on the resilience of companies as France bears the full brunt of soaring energy prices since the invasion of Ukraine and sustained inflation which is undermining purchasing power. .
In November, “there is an increase in activityin industry, market services and construction, stronger than expected the previous month, said Olivier Garnier, Director General of Statistics, Research and International at the Banque de France, presenting the monthly survey of situation of the institution.
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Economic activity should continue to progress significantly in services in December, while it should stabilize in industry and fall back slightly in construction, according to this survey conducted among around 8,500 companies between the end of November and the beginning of December.
“Overall, there is no fall in activity at the end of the year“, underlined Olivier Garnier: GDP should grow by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, confirming the previous forecast of a “very slight increase“. “Of course, it is still marred by uncertainty“, he added, but”we have an activity that is holding up well, and even a little better than expected“.
High uncertainty
For the whole of 2022, the Banque de France has confirmed its forecast of 2.6% growth, identical to that of INSEE, which expects GDP to stagnate in the last quarter. . The government, which has deployed a battery of aid to support businesses and households, expects a 2.7% increase in GDP this year, before a sharp slowdown to 1% in 2023, a scenario deemed too optimistic by many economic institutes.
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For the month of November alone, the Banque de France estimates that GDP should be up compared to October, then that it will remain stable in December. If activity is falling without breaking at the end of 2022, the outlook is however considered more uncertain in the medium term, qualifies the Banque de France, and the level of uncertainty remains high, in particular on the cost and availability of energy.
Assuming so far on an economic cycle that can be summed up in threeR– resilience, slowdown and recovery in 2024 -, the central bank will present on December 16 its forecasts for the next three years, until 2025. Supply and recruitment difficulties ease in November, and order books remain generally well stocked, particularly in aeronautics, computer products or machinery, according to respondents to the survey.
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In a context of rising prices continuing at apace“, the Banque de France said however to remain attentive to the cash position, which is stabilizing at a level “very lowin the industry, as well as the evolution of stocks. The latter have climbed to a level considered “raiseddue to a drop in demand or supply difficulties in particular, or even fears of possible energy shortages in the coming months.
Falling margins
As for the impact of the energy crisis on their activity, the companies did not report any significant change compared to October, when the Banque de France began to question them on this subject. Thus, 24% of them say they were affected in November, including 6% strongly. They are however 35% to expect an impact over the next three months, and they are even more likely to fear for their margins (52%).
According to the governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, who spoke Thursday before the Toulouse School of Economics, the margins of companies will absorb “temporarily» part of the shock from imported prices, with a margin rate expected to reach its lowest point in 2023 before gradually returning to its pre-Covid level in 2025. Households should also see their purchasing power decline, moderately in 2022 and 2023 , before a significant rebound in the following two years.