This will be the first Christmas marked by an inflationary peak and a test for businesses selling non-food goods. Product sales have stagnated for a year on the Internet and showed a decline of 1.5% in the third quarter, according to the Federation of e-commerce and distance selling (Fevad). As for those of specialized brands in the gifts-toys-culture sector (stores + Web), they fell by 4.5% in value between January and October compared to 2022, according to the Federation of Specialized Trade (Procos), despite a slight improvement at the end of the period.
In this context, a question torments all trade professionals: will consumers break the bank for the end-of-year holidays? Because it is now that they start their shopping, with Black Friday, this period of promotions from the United States, which will reach its peak on Friday November 24.
If traders want to know the budget that households have planned for the end-of-year holidays, it is not certain that the multiple surveys on the subject, which nevertheless all claim to be based on a representative sample of citizens, will enlighten them. Really.
The French plan to spend on average 549 euros (gifts and meals included), “a relatively stable amount compared to 2022 [568 euros] », explains a CSA survey for Cofidis. Those surveyed as part of the Toluna Harris Interactive survey, carried out in partnership with Fevad, only set themselves 369 euros for gifts and other preparations. The Christmas envelope falls to 223 euros in the Kantar Barometer for eBay, and less than 199 euros in the YouGov study commissioned by PayPal. With spending forecasts varying almost threefold, traders are moving forward in the fog.
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On the other hand, one point seems certain: the French will continue to make trade-offs, as they have done throughout 2023. First of all, they will guide their gift purchases based on price, a criterion which appears at the top list of the most important factors, according to the 17e annual study on Christmas shopping by Accenture (which is not a survey institute, but an international consulting firm).
“Retailers can remain optimistic because consumers still intend to make purchases”estimates Laurent Thoumine, head of mass distribution, fashion and luxury for Europe at Accenture, even if “How they use their budget will likely be different than in past years”.
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