Cryptos in turmoil – Decidedly, the year 2022 will have been dark for the cryptocurrency sector. After the Terra Luna affair, and its disastrous stablecoin UST which had damaged cryptocurrencies, is it the turn of the FTX Token ? Yesterday, Sam Bankman-Fried wanted to reassure investors by explaining that the company had no risk of insolvency. This morning, the FTX Token stalled to touch $15, registering a significant drop of more than 30%. At the same time, Bitcoin lost only 6%, but it is unclear how far the situation could escalate. As the economic context is still gloomy, the FTT affair could hurt cryptocurrencies very badly. For its part, is the US market changing momentum over the long term? Could BTC follow the US market? It’s here fortieth edition of Point Macro Hebdo !
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Bitcoin falls and drops back below $20,000
Bitcoin (BTC) is back on the psychological zone of $20,000. For the moment, the dynamic remains bullish on a daily basis, even with recent events:
From the fence above $20,500Bitcoin is back in uptrend in the very short term. Bitcoin will remain in an uptrend as long as buyers hold the latest low at $18,200. For the moment, the BTC cannot manage to exceed the resistance at $21,600, nor to make a summit, higher than the previous ones. Indeed, the latest top date, below $21,600turns out to be lower than that located at $22,800 and $25,200. As long as Bitcoin does not manage to break these levels, there is nothing to hope for from the king of cryptocurrencies. However, if he continues in his tidy without breaking supports, altcoins could take the opportunity to recover a few percent.
Beware, a Bitcoin close below $18,200 would be disastrous and likely bring Bitcoin to the next bracket at $13,500a decrease of 30 % additional. For now, the bulls are defending the support. However, they must take advantage of this to show that the sellers no longer have control over this asset.
the momentum is always encouraging bullish trendline is retained for the time being. The RSI should rebound at the level of the bullish trendline in the coming days. It is a level that allows rebounds since June 2022 and the break of this level would probably indicate a continuation of the fall of the asset.
Risk off: Dollar needs to confirm local top, gold still below support at $1,690
The dollar is still moving above the support at 109 points
Despite the recent top of the dollar, this one does not confirm for the moment. To confirm the top, we wait for a rejection under the 109 point support :
The dollar must fall to show the end of the bull run international currency. A significant fall would allow risky assets to regain strengthattractiveness. For the first time since August 2021, the dollar changed momentum in three-day time units. The price is always at the level of the institutional bias (EMA 9/ EMA 18), a bigger rejection would be needed bringing the price below 109 dots.
The RSI is changing momentum, the indicator is forming descending highs and lows. This showsshortness of breath on the buyer side, we must now confirm.
Gold is stuck between $1,675 and $1,615
The gold is stuck in a tidy under the weekly support. If it’s just a DETOURbuyers will have to quickly regain control by changing dynamics:
gold is brittlebecause the price evolves under the weekly support. If the sellers prevail, the price could fall towards the next bracket at $1,550 (-7%). The course is stuck between $1,615 and $1,675, a close above or below these levels should show the direction of the asset for the next few months. If buyers want to save this trending asset bearish since the top in April 2022, it will be necessary to push and close above $1,730. A closure of this kind would restore a dynamic bullish and mark a double bottom at the weekly support level.
The momentum must pass above 46 of RSI to regain buying strength. It is a level that makes resistance since May 2022.
The US market rebounds
The S&P 500 could resume bullish momentum
The US market is rebounding and the S&P 500 could even change dynamics :
Buyers reacted to the level of bracket at $3,700, we can see it thanks to the wick left on the November 2 candle. the institutional bias acts like dynamic resistancebut buyers have the possibility of finding a bullish momentum closing above $3,900. In the end, the November 2 candle shows the indecision of the course between the resistance at $3,900 and the bracket at $3,700. If the buyers prevail, the price could head to the bearish trendline and the resistance at $4,150. On the other hand, if the sellers prevail, the price should return towards the bracket at $3,500.
The price is trending bearish as long as buyers cannot change the momentum. The momentum continues to be very resilient and shows that sellers are running out of steam.
NASDAQ must close above $11,670
NASDAQ price freezes at level du institutional bias :
Buyers have the option of change dynamics closing above $11,670. This would allow the course to change dynamics and regain a bullish momentum. On the other hand, if the sellers continue to control the price and push under $10,450the price could fall towards the next bracket at $9,700 (-11%).
Momentum attempts a dynamic change in the medium term, it remains to be confirmed with a closing above 59 of RSI.
the BTC is still in a short-term uptrend. Buyers need to confirm the momentum by defending the last low at $18,200 and marking a new high, higher than the last high at $21,500. The FTT affair could damage the short-term dynamic, let’s remain vigilant. The dollar needs to confirm its top by forming a bigger rejection below the support and gold still remains undecided below the weekly support. For its part, the US market is recovering, but the US inflation figures are coming in two days, enough to relaunch the downward momentum? Whatever happens, risky assets seem to be slowly heading towards a change in medium-term momentum. However, the dollar must confirm its local top and buyers of risky assets must defend the latest lows.
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