After the first round of the parliamentary elections, the runner-up has more reason to celebrate than the winner: Jean-Luc Mélenchon has succeeded with his electoral alliance, which many doubted. Nevertheless, he has little chance of making life difficult for Macron as Prime Minister.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is not running for parliament, but he is still at the head of the left-wing electoral alliance Nupes.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon still wants to believe in victory – so much so that he doubts the official election results. The left-wing extremist wants to become French head of government. To do this, he formally needs a majority in the grand chamber of parliament. He came closer than ever to this step on Sunday. Nevertheless, the prospects that his left-wing electoral alliance Nupes will become the strongest force in the second round next Sunday are not very good.
His alliance of Greens, Socialists and Communists, forged in record time, did surprisingly well in the first round of voting. The Nupes candidates received only around 21,400 fewer votes than the candidates from Ensemble, the coalition formed around Emmanuel Macron. And of the five candidates who qualified directly, four belong to the Nupes.
Nupes has little leeway
Since the 577 deputies are elected according to the majority system, the future number of seats cannot be inferred from the share of votes. Just looking at the number of candidates who qualified for the second round paints a different picture than the percentage of votes: Ensemble’s candidates are running in runoffs in 417 constituenciesthe Nupes people according to official reading only in 380.
However, Mélenchon accuses the Interior Ministry, which is responsible for the official election results, of not having included the candidates close to Nupes in the overseas territories, in Corsica and in three constituencies in mainland France in the coalition. This was done on purpose to whitewash the results for the government, Mélenchon’s party claimed.
Irrespective of the polemics, all candidates qualified for the runoff election now have to convince other voters in the next five days. And this should be difficult for the candidates from Nupes. Because the alliance already unites a large part of the left-wing spectrum, its reservoir of voters lies primarily with the citizens who did not go to the polls on Sunday. Although that is almost 53 percent, it is uncertain how many Mélenchon can mobilize with the prospect of a left-wing majority.
For President Macron, the situation is somewhat simpler, albeit paradoxical. Ten weeks ago, when he faced far-right Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election, he was particularly concerned with the people who had promoted Mélenchon to third place in the first round in the final spurt of the campaign. Now he and his people have to hunt for votes in the conservative camp in order to secure a majority – ideally an absolute one.
Government spokeswoman Olivia Grégoire drew a red line for concessions on Monday: No vote should go to the Rassemblement national, she said, with regard to constituencies where Le Pen’s party and candidates from Nupes face each other. The Rassemblement national received the third most votes on Sunday with almost 19 percent; In addition to Le Pen himself, 207 other candidates qualified for the second round. This means that the RN has the prospect of forming a group in parliament for the second time in the party’s history, for which 15 MPs are needed. Nevertheless, as was the case five years ago, the result is in discrepancy with Le Pen’s qualification for the run-off election for the presidency.
The winner is the loser though
So even if Macron’s alliance starts this final sprint with good cards and maneuvering between left and right is now one of its core competencies, his troops have little reason to get cocky. The absolute majority of at least 289 deputies, which would make it easier for him to govern, is by no means certain. According to the projections, however, Ensemble can count on a relative majority of between 255 and 295 seats. According to this, between 150 and 190 MPs should be allocated to Nupes.
If Ensemble misses an absolute majority, Macron’s alliance will need other partners to implement its policies. In the run-up to the parliamentary elections, the conservative Républicains had explicitly spoken out against an alliance with Macron. Nevertheless, they now appear to be the most likely partners of the presidential party, both in terms of the second round and future parliamentary business. Those socialists who see the alliance with Mélenchon as a betrayal of their values could also back Macron.
Regardless of the outcome of the election next Sunday, this first round brings three insights. Firstly, the Renaissance presidential party and its centrist partners are among the big losers in this election – even the highest percentage of votes does not change that. Five years ago, an absolute majority had already emerged after the first round of voting; compared to then, Macron’s alliance has lost around 7 percentage points.
Secondly, the reorganization of the French party landscape is taking hold. In addition to the center around President Macron, two extreme parties or alliances are manifested on the left and right, while moderate parties are disappearing into insignificance. And thirdly, even the unexpected dynamism brought about by the new left-wing alliance has not been able to counteract the political disenchantment of many French people. Voter turnout in a parliamentary election in the 5th republic was never as low as it was on Sunday.