QWhat political discourse should be held on climate transition to convince citizens of both the urgency and the effectiveness of acting? By publishing, on Monday May 22, with the Inspector General of Finance Selma Mahfouz, a report on “the economic impact of climate action”the economist Jean Pisani-Ferry did not simply quantify with precision the colossal cost of the ecological transition (from 250 billion to 300 billion euros of additional debt by 2030): he also provided data for address this challenge politically and socially. “We can train citizens, but we need a plan that scales the problem, and in which the efforts are well shared”he explained to Worldby pleading both for a massive recourse to indebtedness and for a tax contribution of the wealthiest.
This work is first and foremost a stone in the garden of the proponents of “green growth”. By explaining that the objective of carbon neutrality will induce a “negative economic shock”, the authors challenge the government’s discourse. Which keeps repeating that its environmental policy would bring additional innovation, new jobs and, therefore, more wealth. None of that in Mr Pisani-Ferry’s report, at least in the decade to come. The replacement of brown technologies by green technologies, not in the name of greater efficiency of the latter but for the good of the planet, should even weigh on growth, by around a quarter of it.
On the other hand, the authors cast doubt on the argument often used by environmental movements and left-wing parties, which claim that, by combining degrowth and the financial contribution of the richest – for example through a tax on climate wealth –, the transition could be painless for the greatest number. “Those for whom the transition will be the most restrictive, because it concerns essential needs (housing, transportation, food), are the working classes. The corresponding economic cost will only be accepted if (…) the sacrifices are equitably distributed [entre tous]warns Mr. Pisani-Ferry. However, at the same level of income, the transition will have very different consequences depending on the type of housing or the area of residence (in particular depending on dependence on the private car).
Prohibit certain modes of transport?
Xavier Ragot, president of the French Observatory of economic conditions, and contributor to the report, goes further. “For part of the left, the ecological transition is approached through the prism of a fairer society and lower unemployment.says the economist. With social and ecological taxation, she thinks she can solve two problems at the same time. But, by making the “solidarity tax on green wealth” the alpha and omega of the transition, the efforts necessary to train the middle and working classes are partly overshadowed. » Should certain modes of transport be banned? Reduce speed on the roads? Abandon the construction of residential areas in the name of “zero net artificialisation”, this principle set to fight against urban sprawl? So many changes in lifestyles and behavior, of which financing is only one aspect, and for which the middle and working classes will be the first concerned.
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