July sounded the stock market rebound. The Cac 40 (+1.72% today, at 6,448.5 points) closed the month with a gain of almost 9%, its best monthly performance since November 2020 and the announcement of the first vaccines against Covid. In fact, the Parisian index signs here its first real progression over a month since the beginning of the year. If, in March, it had not fallen (+0.02%), it had not really risen either.
This Friday, the day after the publication of the GDP figures for the United States for the second quarter – which pointed to a strange recession, the only one that can please the stock market -, the solid results announced by big names in the ” tech”, luxury, banking and oil pulled the index even higher (+3.7% over the week), and this despite a new batch of economic indicators, which were much less encouraging , in terms of inflation in particular.
In the United States, real household consumption rebounded by 0.1% in June (+11% in nominal terms), in line with expectations, after its decline in the previous month, held back by the rise in prices. The core PCE price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s most-monitored measure of inflation, rose 4.8% year on year, after 4.7% in May. The rise in real consumption last month suggests that consumer demand is holding up, despite high inflation, as consumers dip into their savings (personal incomes rose just over 0.6%). But the most important news, within the statistics of household expenditure, is to be found on the side of the sub-component of the cost of employment, with the continuation of the increase in wages. Perhaps, in the end, contrary to the stock market’s hopes, the United States is still far from having finished with inflation, and that the upward trend in wages will continue to put pressure on prices in the short term.
In the euro zone, inflation reached a new high of 8.9% over one year in July, which suggests that the ECB will have no choice but to react strongly in September, with key an increase of 50 or even 75 basis points. But the stock market preferred to focus on the surprise acceleration of 0.7% in growth in the region in the second quarter (after 0.5% in the first, and this despite the stagnation of the German economy), which which, in the opinion of economist Andrew Kenningham, at Capital Economics, is certainly a bad thing. According to him, the boost caused by the economy will fade and ” quick “. “The much better-than-expected second-quarter eurozone GDP growth is, as of now, by far, the best we will see for a long time. The news that inflation has once again been even higher than expected only underscores that the economy is heading for a very difficult time. We expect a recession to begin later this year. » These GDP figures “does not change the fact that the deepening energy crisis, soaring inflation and rising interest rates risk pushing the region into recession later this year. »
+10% for Amazon, +7% for Hermès
In New York, the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and, above all, the Nasdaq Composite are moving up. US First Cap, Apple gains more than 3%, whileAmazon jumped more than 10%, after publishing quarterly results last night that beat expectations. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are also up sharply following the announcement of record profits, boosted by the rise in oil prices.
In Paris, Hermes shone on the Cac 40 (+7.5%). The luxury saddler published excellent results for the first half, marked by a sharp increase in its profits, record operating profitability and a rebound in sales in China in June, greater than that observed among its competitors.
L’Oreal ends on a gain of more than 4% after reporting a 25.2% increase in its net income share of the first half and confirming its objective of an increase in its turnover and its results this year , higher than that of the global beauty market.
Biggest increase in the Cac 40, Capgemini soared 8.6%. The SSII has raised its annual revenue growth target at constant exchange rates, after a strong increase in its results in the first half. Results deemed all the more impressive by analysts as expectations were already high.
Renault closed up more than 5%. The automaker raised its annual targets, while its half-year results suffered from the crisis in semiconductors and the exit of its activities in Russia, but proved to be well above analysts’ expectations.
BNP Paribas won almost 3%. The bank published better-than-expected results for the second quarter thanks to lower provisions for bad debts, despite the economic slowdown, and vigorous activity, especially in the markets. Societe Generale and Crédit Agricole follow with gains of 3.2% and 2.2% respectively.
vinci appreciated by about 3%. The construction and concessions group raised the annual targets of its airport division and confirmed its other prospects while its net profit jumped to 1.9 billion euros in the first half, against 682 million a year earlier.
against the trend, Vivendi fell more than 7% after half-year revenue was in line with expectations, while profit disappointed. The media and communication group did not provide a forecast while indicating that it remains “extremely careful” due to an uncertain macroeconomic environment.
Excluding the flagship index, Air France-KLM increased by more than 4%. The airline is expected to record its first positive annual operating result since 2019 this year after better-than-expected results in the first half.