The flagship index of the Paris Stock Exchange extends its rebound from the day before, without however managing to relocate above the threshold of 6,000 points, abandoned last Thursday. Investors are back on risky assets after the Cac 40 fell nearly 10% in three weeks, but analysts are urging caution, with many insisting that markets have not fully priced in the prospect of a recession. According to them, the recent rebound is just a ” bear market rally “, while the Cac 40 went into a bear market on Thursday evening after a fall of 20% compared to its peak of January 5.
Shortly after 4 p.m., the Bedroom 40 gained 0.82% to 5,968.77 points, after a high of 6,032.24 (+1.89%), in a business volume of 1.47 billion euros. The three major New York indices are recovering between 1.7% and 3% after a weekend extended by the Juneteenth holiday. the S&P500 fell 5.8% last week, its biggest weekly loss since March 2020, in response to the Fed’s 75 basis point rate hike, the largest since 1994.
Towards a recession in 2023?
Goldman Sachs analysts now estimate the probability of a recession in the United States in 2023 at 30%, against 15% previously, against a backdrop of record inflation and an economic environment weakened by the invasion of Ukraine by the Russia. Berenberg’s strategists, for their part, retain as their basic hypothesis the prospect of a ” temporary recession in the United States, the euro zone and the United Kingdom in 2023. “Lack of conviction in a ‘victory over inflation‘, a positive outcome in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and visibility on future risks linked to Covid-19, it is difficult to take a directional risk on equities without hedging “, they write.
Christine Lagarde recalled Monday that the European Central Bank plans to raise its main interest rates in July, then in September, and warned against the risks of a disorderly correction in the financial and real estate markets in Europe. She also defended the project to set up a tool intended to limit the risk of fragmentation in the euro zone.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman James Bullard warned that inflation expectations “ could spin out of control without credible Fed action “. The market is also awaiting Jerome Powell’s monetary policy speech before both chambers of Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
Air Liquide relies on renewable energy
Liquid air increased by 2.7%. The industrial gases giant has signed a long-term renewable power purchase agreement with Vattenfall in the Netherlands for approximately 115 MW of offshore wind capacity under construction. An agreement that echoes the group’s strategy of betting on hydrogen to decarbonize the economy.
Eramet takes 7.1%. The mining group has announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding for the sale of its subsidiary Aubert & Duval, which specializes in high-performance alloys, to a consortium made up of Airbus, Safran and Tikehau Ace Capital, on the base with an enterprise value of 95 million euros.
Soitec rises 3.5%. The Strategic Participation Fund (FSP) has announced that it has entered the capital of the producer of components for the electronics industry, by taking a stake of approximately 150 million euros.
Finally, Valneva another 16.3%. Its managing director Franck Grimaud told BFM Business that its Lyme disease vaccine had the potential to become a “blockbuster” with more than 1 billion euros in sales. The group announced yesterday the entry of Pfizer into its capital up to 8.1% at a price of 9.49 euros per share.