Hope quickly gave way to new strong concerns in the Ukrainian file on Monday and led the Cac 40 to make the splits, between an early morning high up 0.82% and a strong closing. down 2.04%. The flagship index of the place points below the threshold of 6,800 points at the end of the session, at 6,788.34 points. Trading volume was expanded for a day without Wall Street, closed for Presidents’ Day, to 3.91 billion euros. This clearly reflects investors’ feeling of extreme caution in the face of this geopolitical hazard.
In Moscow, the Moex index (ex-Micex) plunged 10% (more than 14% decline, the lowest of the day, a first since 2008). A sign of concern in terms of the supply of energy products, oil is picking up almost 2%, with a barrel of Brent from the North Sea returning above 95 dollars.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine took a new turn on Monday with a possible first direct confrontation in the two countries. The Russian army destroyed two Ukrainian armored vehicles in the Rostov region, on its territory, and killed five people, qualified as “saboteurs” who tried to violate the border, according to the Interfax agency. The Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior, however, denied the incident, assuring that no soldier had crossed the border or had been killed. He calls for the immediate holding of a United Nations Security Council.
war of nerves
Moscow had already cast doubt this morning on the prospect of a summit between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, indeed indicated that there was no ” concrete project » and that a meeting is « premature for now, adding that Vladimir Putin has agreed to discussions at the level of foreign ministers. However, he did not rule out the possibility of discussions or a meeting with the American president if necessary.
President Biden had accepted this weekend the principle of a meeting with Vladimir Putin proposed by Emmanuel Macron in an attempt to ease tensions. This summit is nevertheless conditioned by Washington on Russian non-intervention. The themes raised have yet to be defined during an interview between the American Secretary of State
Another subject of uncertainty for the markets is the prospect of a normalization of the monetary policy of the American Federal Reserve against a backdrop of soaring prices. The probability of a 50 basis point rise in the interest rate Fed-funds in March is no longer favored by investors. The latter will nevertheless closely monitor, on Friday, the statistics of income and expenditure of American households, and in particular the PCE component of personal consumption expenditure, the measure of inflation most followed by the Fed.
“Monetary policy relegated to the background”
” Global statistics and central banks’ stance on monetary tightening are overshadowed by Ukraine, with markets nervously awaiting the next announcement sums up Su-Lin Ong of Royal Bank of Canada.
The market sold, on Monday, the titles without much discernment. But we will nevertheless note the preponderance of certain large industrialists, including Renault (-3.98%), present in Russia via Avtovaz. Alstom loses 4.2% and Schneider-Electric 3.7%.
Teleformance (-5.12%) lost more than the lead that had been garnered at the end of last week in reaction to good annual results and an ambitious new strategic plan.
L’Oreal fell 3.96%. Societe Generale downgraded the title of the cosmetics group from “buy” to “sell”.
Excluding the flagship index, Faureciawhich gained more than 4% at the start of the morning after the publication of its annual accounts, ultimately lost 5.4%.