The Cac 40 offers a rebound and, for once, without the help of Wall Street

Should we see a trend reversal or a break in the decline? The day after a fall of almost 4%, the largest since the appearance of the Omicron variant at the end of November, the Paris Stock Exchange regained its senses, its flagship index, the Bedroom 40, having regained 0.74%, to 6,837.96 points. Its rebound, however, was nearly undermined in the afternoon, shortly after the opening of Wall Street. The large Americans are also down at a time when Paris is closing its doors. the Nasdaq Composite, which includes the big names in technology, fell more than 2%, after rising 0.63% on Monday.

Despite the rebound in Paris, the risks are still present, according to observers. The first of these is geopolitics. And is played on the borders of Europe. This Tuesday, it seems that the situation could degenerate at any time between Kiev and Moscow. The Russian armed forces have launched a new series of maneuvers in the south of the country, near Ukraine, and in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed in 2014. In the event of an attack, the West has promised unprecedented sanctions against Moscow …

D-1 before the Fed’s verdict

Added to these concerns are those about the strategy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The members of his committee have been meeting since Tuesday for two days to determine the direction to be given to monetary policy. While there is no doubt that the cost of money will rise, several questions remain unanswered, such as the date of the first increase in key rates, its magnitude and the number of increases planned in 2022. For the time being, the Most investors are betting on a 25 basis point rise in interest rates in March, but some less optimistic believe there is a risk, albeit limited, that the Fed will raise rates surprise tomorrow. Going forward, the economists’ scenario is that of three to four additional rate hikes by December and an earlier and faster start to quantitative tightening, which could begin in June or September. The general opinion is that the Fed will not take the risk of destabilizing the market. Its monetary policy will become less accommodating, due to galloping inflation, without becoming very aggressive.

In Europe, the surprise improvement in the business climate in Germany was well received. The Ifo index rose 0.9 points in January, a first since June, to stand at 95.7, against a decline to 94.5 anticipated by the market. ” It’s still early days, but it looks like conditions stabilized in January, with the Ifo, PMI and Zew indices all advancing. With the Omicron wave set to abate in February and March, the economy should return to growth in the first quarter. For now, we expect 0.5% GDP growth sequentially commented Andrew Kenningham, Chief Economist Europe at Capital Economics.

Orpéa still in turmoil

On the values ​​front, Orpéa has unscrewed again. Suspended from trading Monday in the middle of the day, the title of the manager of Ephad and clinics fell 20.35% for its resumption of trading, the day after a drop of 16.1%. The book “The gravediggers”, to be published on Wednesday, denounces excesses of mistreatment in the retirement homes managed by the group. Orpéa, whose image is seriously tarnished, defends itself and is considering legal action in the case.

Conversely, Interparfums won 7.5%. The creator of luxury perfumes recorded a 52.7% increase in its annual turnover to 560.8 million euros, against 550.2 million expected by analysts. The group confirmed its forecast for an operating margin of 15% in 2022, against 17% expected in 2021. Remy Cointreau also complied with the results exercise, but the reception on the stock market was colder. The title of the spirits group ended down 2.08%. The market regrets that management did not raise its forecast for the staggered 2021-2022 financial year.

In terms of analysts, Oddo BHF raised its recommendation on Publicis from “neutral” to “outperformance” and raised its target price from 58 to 70.50 euros. Jefferies, who is at “buy”, shows himself “ particularly bullish » on the three listed French banks BNP Paribas, Agricultural credit and Societe Generale. The broker puts forward a strong potential for revaluation and an attractive return (in the form of dividends and share buybacks).


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