After three rising sessions in a row, the Paris Stock Exchange is taking a breather. Company publications are generally of good quality, even if some are sanctioned for not having “exploded” the consensus. But the real issue of the session is to be found on the side of the United States with the statistics of consumer prices, which will be published at 2:30 p.m. In the meantime, the yield on the 10-year US bond remains above 1.93%, while that of the German Bund of the same maturity tightens by 2 basis points to 0.2310%.
The European Commission unveiled its economic forecasts for the euro zone this morning. It is thus counting on growth of 4% in the region’s GDP this year, after 5.3% in 2021, and 2.7% in 2023. Regarding inflation, the Commission anticipates an acceleration to 3.5% in 2022, after 2.6% in 2021, before slowing to 1.7% next year.
At 12:20 p.m., the Bedroom 40 gleaned 0.10% to 7,138.17 points in an expanded business volume of 1.28 billion euros. The contracts future on American indices evolve between a gain of 0.2% for the Dow Jones and a decline of 0.3% for the Nasdaq 100. Component of the index of 30 industrials, Disney progresses by 8% in pre-market, boosted by results above expectations thanks to the rebound in attendance at its parks and its streaming activities.
20% chance for a half point rise
Speculation is rife about the extent of the monetary tightening that the US Federal Reserve will decide on in March. The evolution of consumer prices in the United States will be a key element in setting expectations. For now, the consensus formed by Bloomberg is counting on an inflation rate of 7.2% over one year, which would be the highest since February 1982, after 7% in December. Last month’s strong employment figures and accelerating wage increases have set the bar very high, and a strengthening of inflation would only increase the likelihood of a big move from from the Fed.
” The pre-CPI rally in US stocks suggests that hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve are largely priced in and the worst of the reaction to Fed tightening is now over “, notes Ipek Ozkardeskaya, at Swissquote. However, she points out that there is a risk that investor optimism is premature and that a higher-than-expected inflation rate wipes out recent gains while there is room for hawks to emerge within the Fed and rubber stamp policy more restrictive”. Markets are pricing around a 20% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate hike in March, but that could change if inflation picks up more than expected, she said.
Unibail optimistic, Atos alert again
Societe Generale increased by 4.7%. The bank reported a near quadrupling of its profit in the fourth quarter, thanks to lower pandemic-related charges and a rebound in retail banking and equity trading activities. The group also indicated that its profitability should continue to improve in the years to come.
Agricultural credit takes 2%. The green bank published net income group share of 5.8 billion euros for the 2021 financial year, ” one of the best in its history “, said to Agefi Philippe Brassac, the general manager. This result is more than twice that of 2020, which was €2.7 billion and notably included the impairment of CA Italia’s goodwill, with a negative effect of €778 million. euros. Underlying net income, which excludes exceptional items, was €5.4 billion, up 40.2% year-on-year.
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield advance of 7%. The commercial property company has announced that it is targeting adjusted net recurring earnings per share for 2022 of between 8.2 and 8.4 euros, compared to 6.91 for the 2021 financial year, thanks to the recovery in the second half of the last year.
ArcelorMittal yields 1%. The steelmaker published quarterly results above analysts’ forecasts. Over the October-December period, the gross operating surplus, (Ebitda) the measure most watched by analysts, quintupled to 5.05 billion dollars. This figure is barely above Jefferies’ expectations, which points out that the 38% increase in net debt is higher than expected.
L’Oreal loses 2%. The cosmetics giant announced better-than-expected sales growth in the fourth quarter, supported in particular by the enthusiasm of its Chinese and American customers for beauty products during the end-of-year holidays. While sales were “impressive,” operating margin and earnings per share were slightly below RBC’s expectations, noting that after several industry warnings, this slight disappointment is notable.
Biggest drop in SRD, Atos drops 5.1% after again lowering its forecasts and announcing asset write-downs of up to 2.4 billion euros.
Finally, Dassault Aviation advance of 4%. The contract signed with Indonesia for the acquisition of Rafale combat aircraft is for a total amount of 8.1 billion dollars, announced the French Ministry of the Armed Forces, which adds that Thales (+2.2%) and Saffron (+0.7%) will be involved in the contract.