The Paris Stock Exchange is at a standstill, or almost, in the middle of the day, still groggy after the new fall in American places on Monday, subject to profit releases ahead of the holding of the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of the week.
At mid-session, the Cac 40 oscillates around its closing levels of the previous day, at 6,382.86 points, in a trading volume of less than 600 million euros. While the preliminary Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI figures for August released this morning remain fragile, they have offered some temporary comfort to traders, as they are a little better than feared. the analysts. According to these flash data, the composite index in the euro zone remains in a contraction phase, at 49.2 points, against 49.9 points in July, but a little above the 49 points which had been targeted by the consensus, thanks almost stable in industry, while the non-manufacturing component deteriorated a little more than expected. It was from Germany that the surprise came in particular, with an industrial sub-index very close to the threshold of 50, therefore close to growth, rebounding over one month.
The recession has already started
” The latest flash PMI data points to a decline in overall eurozone activity for a second consecutive month in August, explains S&P Global. Prices paid and prices charged by businesses in the euro area rose again at robust rates in August. However, the survey shows further signs that price increases are leveling off, with cost and tariff inflation rates having eased compared to July. ” But ” soaring gasoline prices and strong domestic price pressures will keep inflation high, immediately tempers Jack Allen-Reynolds, of Capital Economics, for whom these PMI figures mean that the recession has already started in Europe.
In Paris, the session was partly supported by the rise in oil prices, to nearly $98 a barrel of Brent, as OPEC said it was ready to cut production to correct the recent drop in crude prices. linked to macroeconomic fears, said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. TotalEnergies takes the opportunity to gain 1.4%. At the SRD, oil services CGG and Vallourec take more than 5%.
Jackson Hole in sight
On Wall Street, we are hoping for a reaction, with future contracts suggesting increases of around 0.2%. A movement that would remain very technical for the moment. Yesterday, they unscrewed for a second consecutive day. The Dow Jones dropped 1.91%, the S&P 500 lost 2.14% and the Nasdaq Composite 2.55%. This is their worst session since June.
Much trepidation ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, with most market strategists now agreeing that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be much more incisive than in the last decision July monetary policy statement. The economic situation allows it. While inflation continues to peak at 8.5% over one year, the job market remains solid, as did the last season of corporate results overall. The scenario of a 75 basis point hike in key rates in September is also gaining ground. According to the tool developed by the CME based on futures on Fed-funds, the probability is currently assessed at 56.5%, compared to only 47.5% on Monday morning. The yield on 10-year bonds rose above the 3% threshold yesterday (3.018% this morning) for the first time in a month. In Paris, growth stocks are suffering, like Teleperformance (-1.8%) and Dassault Systems (-1.4%).