The Cac 40 tries to analyze the consequences of the Russian incursion into the separatist zone

After having sold up to 2.27% at the very beginning of the session, the Paris Stock Exchange is stabilizing, in a market which remains on alert in the face of geopolitical tensions. Vladimir Putin’s recognition of the independence of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, where he has sent “peacekeeping” troops, is in effect undermining hopes of de-escalation between Moscow and Kiev, as well as the prospect of a diplomatic settlement. The United States is preparing to announce new sanctions against Russia, while German Chancellor Olaf Sholz announced the suspension of the authorization for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

At the worst of the session, the Cac 40 yielded more than 10% compared to its record of January 5 (7,384.86), thus technically entering the correction zone, before making a jump which nevertheless remains fragile. Some investors hope that Russian intervention will remain confined to the two separatist regions. Under this assumption, Western sanctions should remain limited, while an invasion of the rest of Ukraine would have entirely different implications, believes Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg.

If he [Poutine] With that in mind, the sanctions should weaken the Russian economy over time with very limited impact on advanced economies. “, he writes. The market also welcomes the continued improvement in the business climate in Germany, whose index established by the Ifo institute rose by 2.9 points to 98.9 in February, against 96.5 expected.

At 2:45 p.m., the Bedroom 40 is stable at 6,794.70 points (+0.09%) in an expanded business volume of 2.27 billion euros. In Frankfurt, the Dax yields 0.30%, while in Moscow, the Moex plaice of 2.5%. The contracts future March on US indices fell between 0.4% and 0.7%. Wall Street was closed Monday for Presidents’ Day. Component of the Dow Jones, Home Depot down 3.1% in pre-market trading, the DIY and home improvement giant expects sales growth to slow this year.

The oil and gas Stoxx 600 rose 0.6%, driven by the 2% surge in Brent prices, which are flirting with the $100 threshold, after hitting 99.50, a level not seen since September 2015. TotalEnergies hangs 0.5%.

The geopolitical crisis has heightened market uncertainty, prompting investors to revise downwards their expectations regarding the size of the next rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The probability of a 50 basis point hike in the Fed funds rate in March is now estimated at 29%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. On the bond market, the yield on the 10-year US bond stabilized around 1.92%.

All lights green for Worldline

Three American indicators will animate the afternoon: the S&P Core-Logic index of house prices in December, the Markit PMI survey of manufacturing activity in February and the consumer confidence index as compiled by the Conference Board for the same month.

Worldline moved to the top of the Cac 40 and the SRD with a jump of 10.6%. The electronic payments specialist has confirmed its key financial targets after beating expectations in the fourth quarter.

Edenred wins 5.6%. The payment voucher specialist has confirmed its objectives for 2022, after having published results for 2021 described as “record”. Results described as solid by Oddo-BHF, which also underlines the group’s confidence in its prospects.

Eramet takes 5.9%. The mining group has announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding for the sale of the alloy manufacturer Aubert & Duval to a consortium made up of Airbus, Safran and Tikehau Ace Capital on the basis of an enterprise value of 95 million euros.

Ubisoft advance of 5.5%. The title of the video game publisher is an opportunity to ” growth at a reasonable price “, according to Citi analysts. Those in Benchmark moved from “sell” to “hold” emphasizing that recent moves in the sector provide a valuation floor.

Renault down 3.3%. The French group is particularly exposed to the risk of sanctions against Russia, its second market, where it is the main shareholder of the manufacturer Avtovaz.

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