Po talk about the relationship with China in the West, we generally evoke the triptych of systemic rivalry, competition and partnership. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock see climate protection as the latter’s key area. In the joint declaration of the French and Chinese presidents, the climate was cited as a common priority. But for at least three reasons, it has become part of the enduring systemic rivalry – with catastrophic consequences for the fight against climate change.
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First, China is banking on cheap fossil fuels as the basis for its economic growth. For the People’s Republic, rapid growth is necessary domestically and centrally in foreign policy in order to achieve supremacy in the Indo-Pacific. While China is committed to meeting climate targets, Chinese emissions continue to rise rapidly. The country is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world.
On the other hand, CO emissions2 of the EU are decreasing and represent less than a quarter of those of China. They are also decreasing in the United States, where they represent less than half of those of China. China highlights its status as a developing country and the fact that the West has historically emitted more. However, it is catching up fast and will soon reach EU level. Even in terms of emissions per capita, China now emits more than the EU. Since 2000, China has also built more coal-fired power plant capacity each year than the United States and the EU have closed. Many of them will still be in service after the exit date of the Paris climate agreement, in 2040.
Leadership competition
Then, competition between systems manifests itself in third countries. China has supported the construction of coal-fired power plants as part of its “Belt and Road” initiative and wants to establish its fossil-fired development model in order to fight poverty and extend its authoritarian system to the whole world. The West often links development partnerships to renewable energy development.
Finally, China and the West are competing for green technology leadership. It dominates certain parts of green supply chains, such as solar panels or batteries. These successes were achieved through market size, targeted industrial policy, subsidies and protectionism. Both the US and the EU have now reacted by granting subsidies and imposing requirements on local production in order to increase their market share. The race for subsidies is not necessarily bad news for the climate. But protectionism could curb the introduction of green technologies due to higher prices.
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