The war in Ukraine has forced Europeans to imagine a life without Russian energy, when 30% of the gas and 28% of the oil they consume comes from Russia. On Wednesday, May 18, the Commission presented its battle plan: the rise of renewables, acceleration of energy savings, diversification of gas supply… In total, the Community executive assures that these measures, which will require 210 billion euros in investments by 2027, will enable the European Union (EU) to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons by two thirds by the end of 2022 and to get out of it completely ” as soon as possible “.
Before the Russian aggression, the Europeans, each jealous of their sovereignty in terms of energy, would never have imagined having this collective reflection. If some of them – in particular the Baltic States or Poland – had already embarked on a strategy in this direction, others, including Germany, did not plan to untie the ties they had with Moscow.
The conflict changed everything. Not only is it paradoxical to help kyiv on the one hand while continuing to finance Putin’s war on the other, but no one in the EU anymore, not even Viktor Orban’s Hungary, despite being close to Vladimir Putin , disputes the need to cut all ties of dependence with Russia. The Twenty-Seven have already decided to do without Russian coal by August. They are negotiating the possibility of an embargo on oil but, for the moment, they have come up against Budapest’s refusal.
As for gas, it is not yet, at this stage, a question of taking sanctions against Moscow. But the Twenty-Seven know that the Kremlin can decide, overnight, to cut off their gas tap, as it did with Poland and Bulgaria, or electricity, as it made with Finland. “We expect the Russians to blackmail at any time”, admits Eric Mamer, the Commission’s spokesman. It is therefore better to prepare, and quickly.
Contacts in Norway, Qatar and Algeria
In the short term, the Twenty-Seven have no other solution than to buy oil and gas elsewhere, to exploit the existing nuclear power stations to the maximum, to reopen some of them and to put coal mines back into service. which had been closed. In this context, the Commission has already announced that the United States is ready to increase its deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 15 billion cubic meters in 2022 (i.e. 10% of Russian gas sold to the EU per year). and 50 billion cubic meters by 2030. It is increasing its contacts in Norway, Qatar and Algeria to find other sources of supply.
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