The Concorde Foundation, a liberal and pro-business think tank, scrutinized the programs of the five main presidential candidates, evaluating in particular their effectiveness in reindustrializing France, increasing the employment rate and controlling public finances, according to this study. transmitted Friday to AFP.
On the industrialization front, the Concorde Foundation judges rather positively the cuts in production taxes promised by Emmanuel Macron, Valrie Pcresse and Eric Zemmour.
But the reduction of 7 billion in contribution on added value (CVAE) proposed by the outgoing president is an insufficient step, while the direction towards SMEs and VSEs by Marine Le Pen does not make it possible to respond to the challenges of industry and the foreign trade.
Conversely, the 30 billion less promised by Eric Zemmour are a sufficient critical mass to relaunch production, especially since, according to the Foundation, this loss of revenue would be financed by the surplus activity it would allow.
In terms of stimulating employment, the Foundation welcomes the conditioning measures of the RSA, pension reforms and Emmanuel Macron’s unemployment insurance. Just like the decline in the starting age of 64 proposed by Eric Zemmour.
Similarly, all the measures proposed (by Valrie Pcresse) are really able to boost the labor supply, she judges. Its pension reform in particular would directly generate 16 billion euros in savings via the decline in the retirement age, but also 32 billion per year in revenue via the increase in the employment rate.
Conversely, lowering the starting age to 60 for those who started working early wanted by Marine Le Pen would directly cost 15 billion euros and lead to a decline in the employment rate.
The Concorde Foundation’s assessment is much stricter on the impact of these programs on public finances.
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Only that of Valrie Pcresse would reduce the public deficit by 1.7%, thanks to a cost of 30.8 billion euros per year, against 73.4 billion in savings.
Eric Zemmour’s program would widen it by 0.5%, with measures that merely track unnecessary spending, and an overvaluation of the gains from the abolition of certain benefits for non-European foreigners.
That of Emmanuel Macron would make it worse by nearly 1%, due to a lack of savings, while that of Marine Le Pen would increase the deficit by more than 3.3%, with savings that would not be able to finance than a quarter of the purchasing power measures promised.
The Foundation briefly considered the program of Jean-Luc Mlenchon, which it considers unrealistic. Its desire to cancel part of the public debt and to make the financing of the State independent of the financial markets would lead, according to it, to a collapse of the economy and the standard of living of the French.
Reproduction forbidden.