IBeyoncé’s power of influence is not limited to the pop scene and record sales. According to Michael Grahn, chief economist at Danske Bank in Stockholm, it even extends to… inflation. Passing through the Swedish capital on May 10 and 11, the American singer attracted some 90,000 spectators to her two concerts. This influx of visitors would have, he said, pushed up the Swedish consumer price index by 0.2% in May, where it stood at 9.7% in total. Prices in hotels and restaurants alone jumped 3.3%.
If Mr. Grahn’s theory does not convince everyone, it has the merit of reminding us that inflation is an imperfect indicator, partly influenced by unexpected phenomena. These are often less anecdotal than the “Queen B” tour – like the war in Ukraine and the painful commodity boom it fueled. On another note, the price of onions in India, a staple of the local diet, largely determines variations in inflation in the country. And politicians are watching it closely, because its outbreak, usually accompanied by popular anger, is likely to bring down governments.
In Europe, the recurring debate focuses more on the gap between the consumer price index (the CPI, or its version harmonized by Eurostat, the HICP) and the inflation perceived by households. A study published in mid-June by Allianz economists underlines that the latter stood at 16.1% in May, against 6.1% for the HICP. “As observed during the 2008 crisis, this gap has widened in recent months”, describe the authors. But, this time, it should last longer, they believe. With a risk: the more households anticipate a rise in prices, the more they modify their buying and saving behavior accordingly.
These differences in perception have been closely studied by economists for several years. They are the result of a series of more or less rational factors, linked to purchasing habits and various biases. Above all: the average basket of products screened by INSEE and its counterparts to establish the CPI does not correspond perfectly to that of consumers. The less well-off thus devote a larger share of their income to energy and fuels than the richest – so they have suffered more in recent months.
The economists were wrong
A recent study by the Banque de France recalls that the increase in prices felt by the French also depends on their age, level of education and gender. Women perceive inflation to be 2 percentage points higher than men – presumably because they are more often responsible for day-to-day purchases. Similarly, those under 25 have an estimate of the CPI that is 6 points higher than those over 50, and graduates with a baccalaureate + 3 or more perceive inflation 5 points lower than those who are not. graduates.
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