the difficult assessment of the government recovery plan

The interminable health crisis has almost made him forget, but he is still there. The France Relance plan, launched in September 2020 to boost the economy at a time when the government hoped to be able to quickly emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, continues to be implemented. Of the 100 billion euros planned by 2022, 72 billion have been “engaged”, that is to say, directed towards specific projects, including 42 billion actually paid, said Matignon, Tuesday, January 18.

This corresponds to the horizon set by the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, for this vast plan. Designed around three pillars – ecology, business competitiveness, employment and social cohesion -, it brings together heterogeneous measures: in addition to the reduction in production taxes, the MaPrimeRénov’ scheme for housing renovation works alongside the hydrogen plan, the apprenticeship, the Ségur de la santé or even the automobile bonus-malus.

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” The results are in “, welcomed the tenant of Bercy, according to whom “France Relance reinforces the policies implemented for five years for attractiveness, competitiveness and reindustrialisation. » His entourage abounds: “The sustained deployment of France Relance is reflected in economic terms: the two short-term objectives, set for the summer of 2020, have been largely achieved. » At the time, it was a question on the one hand of putting France back on the rails of growth by reconnecting, at the end of 2022, with the level of activity which was that of before the crisis, and on the other , create 160,000 additional jobs in 2021 and return the unemployment rate to below 10%.

It is clear that all these indicators are green at the start of the year. Forecast at 6.25%, growth should finally reach 6.7% in 2021. The country returned to its pre-crisis level of activity in the fall. The unemployment rate is approaching 8% and the economy has created more than 500,000 jobs in 2021.

Read also France’s growth: the OECD raises its forecast to 6.8% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022

But is it thanks to France Relance? That’s the whole point. “You have to be careful about the specific impact of the plan on these good results”, do we recognize in Matignon, while assuring that he “is part of a global economic policy, with long-term reforms, such as taxation of capital, that of the labor market, the simplification law for businesses, etc.”. This is essentially what the interim report of the France Relance evaluation committee indicated in October: mandated by the government and chaired by the economist Benoît Cœuré, the body judged “difficult to establish a direct link between this rapid recovery of the situation and the implementation of France Relance”.

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