The number of initial jobless claims is currently important campaign ammunition in the US. If it goes down, President Trump tries to use it for himself. But now, surprisingly, it has shot up.
In the US, the number of initial claims for US unemployment insurance benefits has risen contrary to expectations. In the week of August 15, this grew compared to the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis by 135,000 to 1,106,000, according to the US Department of Labor in Washington. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a decline to 923,000.
For the previous week, the value was revised upwards to 971,000 from the original 963,000. The four-week moving average decreased by 79,000 compared to the previous week to 1,175,750. For the week ending August 8, 14.844 million people received unemployment benefits. This was a decrease of 636,000 from the previous week. The number of initial applications is an important indicator of the state of the US economy. If it goes up, this indicates problems, especially since private consumption is the most important pillar of the economy.
Especially after the economic slump as a result of the corona lockdown, many Americans are hoping for an early recovery, also because there are only minor social security systems and because Republicans and Democrats have not yet been able to agree on another aid package in Washington. The central bank, the Fed, pointed out on Wednesday that the economy would be difficult to get going again without government help.
For President Donald Trump, the economy is one of the most important campaign topics. He advertises that he "built" a strong economy before the pandemic and promises to do so again after the election. The earlier the recovery sets in, the more believable it will appear to his sympathizers. In polls, Trump is currently clearly behind the Democratic challenger Joe Biden. However, the incumbent has just under three months to make up for the November 3rd election.
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