New York (awp/afp) – The euro rose on Friday against all the major currencies, on the impetus given to it on Thursday by the toughening of the tone of the European Central Bank (ECB), now ready to raise its rate from this year.
Around 7:50 p.m. GMT, the single currency gained 0.11% against the dollar, to 1.1453 dollars for one euro. Earlier, it had reached $1.1484, its highest level in almost three months (November 10).
The euro also continued to rise against the Swiss franc and the yen, reaching its highest level in three months against these two currencies.
“The big change in the European Central Bank has overshadowed any positive effect for the dollar from the jobs report,” commented Matthew Weller, head of research for brokerage platform Forex.com.
The US economy created 467,000 jobs in January, more than triple what economists expected. Added to this is a major revision for the month of December, with 510,000 creations against 199,000 initially announced.
“The jobs report was incredibly strong, even without taking into account the astronomical revisions,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “So the Fed has the green light to start moving rates very soon.”
Nearly 40% of operators now expect a 50 basis point (0.5 percentage point) hike in March, which would be a first since 2000, with the Fed rather accustomed to raising rates by quarter point. Only 2% believed in it a month ago.
But for Matthew Weller, the consequences of this report may not be felt for months, in terms of monetary policy.
“The question is whether the Fed will make a fourth, fifth or sixth rate hike in the second half of the year,” he says, the trajectory itself having already been largely priced in.
“This explains, for me, the fact that the euro did not retreat today,” he concluded. “We broke with a downward trend (…) so it was a very important week for the euro, which could continue to rise in February and March.”
Ironically, the only major currency whose central bank actually raised rates this week, namely the pound sterling, did not enjoy any momentum against the euro or the dollar.
“I was a little surprised,” said Matthew Weller, recalling that four of the nine members of the Bank of England’s monetary committee were even in favor of a 50 basis point increase on Thursday.
“I’m waiting to see how traders will begin, in the coming weeks, to digest the fact that the tightening has also taken place at the Bank of England”, and not only at the ECB, concluded the analyst.
Cours de vendredi Cours de jeudi
19H50 GMT 22H00 GMT
EUR/USD 1,1453 1,1440
EUR/JPY 131,99 131,53
EUR/CHF 1,0597 1,0522
EUR/GBP 0,8461 0,8413
USD/JPY 115,24 114,97
USD/CHF 0,9253 0,9198
GBP/USD 1,3535 1,3598
afp/rp