President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne during the July 14 parade on the Champs Elysées in Paris (POOL/AFP/SARAH MEYSSONNIER)
End of the “studious” vacation at Fort Brégançon. Emmanuel Macron is preparing for a turbulent return, with the French overtaken by the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and an opposition in ambush.
The president and the government will be back no later than Wednesday for the Council of Ministers after a summer break disrupted by unprecedented fires in France and deadly thunderstorms in Corsica.
Faced with adversity, the tone is set: “The red thread of the start of the school year will be general mobilization”, they say in the entourage of the Head of State. With a watchword, “energy sobriety”.
Emmanuel Macron prepared the French on July 14 for a difficult autumn, with the risk of energy shortages fueled by the gas conflict with Russia.
Commemorating Friday the 78th anniversary of the Landing in Provence, the Head of State dramatized the issue by invoking “the price to pay for freedom”.
For the executive, deprived of an absolute majority since June, the political horizon is also darkening after a first jump of obstacles without too much difficulty on the purchasing power package.
“They started with an exercise on + easy + themes like purchasing power. The hardest part happens”, anticipates political scientist Bruno Cautrès.
– “Serenity” –
The opposition is determined to fight over the 2023 budget and heated debates are looming on the reform of unemployment insurance, pensions or immigration.
With a dilemma for the presidential camp, “how to stay the course and left and right” and “not to fall into a form of coalition with Les Républicains”, notes Bruno Cautrès.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne during questions to the government at the National Assembly, July 12, 2022 in Paris (AFP/Archives/BERTRAND GUAY)
However, the executive wants to be confident. “The start of the new school year, we approach it with serenity when there is a clear course, coherence and consistency in the action carried out as well as total lucidity on the challenges to be met”, assures the entourage. Of the president.
The course is “sovereignty”, especially in energy, the “battle for the climate” and “equal opportunities”.
A government seminar devoted in particular to ecology will be held in the last days of August.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne must also deliver a “strong speech on energy sobriety and transition” at the Medef summer school at the end of August. The Head of State asked him to “submit in the fall an ecological planning agenda broken down by month and year”, specifies the Elysée.
He himself will make a trip devoted to offshore wind turbines at the beginning of September and will speak on education topics at the start of the school year.
– “Nuclear heart” –
Emmanuel Macron will also launch the National Council for Refoundation (CNR), which must involve elected officials, economic and social actors and citizens in consultation, on September 8 on the themes of school, health and public services.
So many themes likely to speak to the center left, just like the debate on the right to vote for foreigners initiated by the deputy Sacha Houlié (Renaissance).
On this subject, “the president was not consulted and he considers that it is not a priority”, however observes a regular at the Elysée.
Among the most promising subjects on the right, the orientation and programming bill of the Ministry of the Interior (Lopmi), which should provide an additional 15 billion euros in budget in five years, will be examined in October in Parliament.
The immigration bill was postponed to December, at the request of the Elysée and Matignon, and will be preceded by a “big debate” in both chambers.
Session of questions to the government at the National Assembly, in Paris, July 19, 2022 (AFP/Archives/Christophe ARCHAMBAULT)
On the budget, the presidential camp does not rule out going through article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a text to be adopted without a vote, by engaging the responsibility of the government.
“From the moment we guess that the Nupes (at least) are going to ask thousands of amendments, it is hard to see how we could do otherwise…”, concedes a member of the majority.
“The political situation is unstable”, points out a close friend of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who sees “two solutions”: “either a stable coalition between Macron and LR, or at the end a return to the polls”, with a dissolution.
vl/cs/dch
© 2022 AFP
Did you like this article ? Share it with your friends with the buttons below.
