Purchasing power already occupied a central place in the electoral campaign, the war in Ukraine has just given it new vigor. The surge in energy prices, in particular gas and oil, caused by the Russian invasion on Thursday February 24, has revived fears of lasting inflation, which would cut into the purchasing power of the French in a few weeks of the ballot. For the first time since 2014, the price of a barrel of crude has indeed passed 100 dollars, gas gained nearly 30% in one day while cereals, in particular wheat, broke all-time records.
In the afternoon, Matignon urgently brought together Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy, Barbara Pompili, the Minister for Energy Transition, and Olivier Dussopt, the Minister Delegate in charge of Public Accounts, to take stock of the economic consequences of the invasion, particularly on energy markets. The supply of gas and oil to France, of which Russia is a major exporter, is not a subject of concern in the short term, indicates the executive, because of the stocks that France has built up. These allow him to hold out for several months in the event of an interruption in deliveries on the Russian side or sanctions on the European side, recalls the entourage of Barbara Pompili.
The rise in prices, in particular of oil, on the other hand, raises more concerns on the executive side, even if prices are already high and“it usually takes one to two months for crude prices to trickle down to prices at the pump”explains Ano Kuhanathan, an analyst at Euler Hermes.
It has been several months since the gradual increase in gas, electricity and oil prices forced the government to take support measures to mitigate the effects on households. More than 15 billion euros have been mobilized since the end of summer 2021, with a freeze on gas and electricity prices for the whole of 2022, heating aid for low-income households, and a check of 100 euros, called “inflation allowance”, distributed to 38 million households. The mileage scale which allows motorists to deduct their professional transport costs from their taxes was also revalued in January.
A device which has so far rather better protected the French, in particular the most modest, than those adopted elsewhere in Europe, estimate the analysts of Euler Hermes in a note. But the savings accumulated by households during the Covid-19 crisis, concentrated by the wealthiest 40%, will not be enough to absorb the additional energy bill, they warn.
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