France Strategy and the statistics division of the Ministry of Labor have delivered their projections on the dynamics of recruitment of professions by 2030. Computer engineers would be among the best off professions.
Already accelerated in recent years by the development of digital technology in all parts of the economy, the transformation of the labor market has been further amplified by the Covid-19 pandemic. In this context, which professions will recruit the most during the 2019-2030 period? It is to answer this question that a report on professions in 2030 was produced by France Strategy, an institution attached to Matignon, and the Dares (Direction of the animation of research, studies and statistics), which depends on the Ministry of Labour.
It shows that 760,000 jobs will have to be filled each year in France until 2030. Please note that the vast majority of these are not job creations since “departures at the end of their careers will be very numerous, fueled by baby boomers leaving the labor market, i.e. an average of 673,000 departures per year”, notes the report. These departures should therefore represent 89% of the positions to be filled each year, which leaves barely 11% for net creations, or 86,000 positions per year. In total, this would represent 7.4 million retirements between 2019 and 2030 and 946,000 net job creations over the period.
Job creation favorable to higher education graduates
The projections of France Strategy and Dares linked to the crossover on the job market make it possible to highlight that computer engineers should be the main winners in the coming years. In 2030, there would thus be 115,000 additional jobs in the sector, an increase of 26% compared to 2019. Among the other most job-creating professions (between 110 and 115,000 each), we also find nurses – midwives, caregivers and sales executives, ahead of home helpers (more than 100,000) and skilled maintenance workers (more than 80,000). These creations should mainly benefit higher education graduates who will occupy nearly one in two jobs in 2030 (47%, compared to 43% today), according to the report.
However, if these trades are the most job-creating, they are not necessarily the ones that will offer the most vacancies over the next 10 years. Recruitment needs will therefore be greatest for maintenance workers, with 490,000 positions, ahead of teachers (329,000), home helpers (305,000), vehicle drivers (301,000) and – caregivers (290,000). “Over the next 10 years there would be more teaching positions to be filled, even if the total number of teachers is assumed to be stable, than computer engineering positions, whereas this is one of the professions whose workforce would increase the most, but where there would be few retirements over the 2019-2030 period”says the report.
Beyond expressing reservations because of the health crisis which can disrupt these forecasts, the report also looks at the potential imbalances of the professions by 2030 for an overview of the sectors in tension. “The majority of occupations in tension today would continue to be so or would see their recruitment difficulties worsen by 2030 (47 out of a total of 83 occupations). In these professions, the reduction of current tensions and future imbalances would mainly involve improving their attractiveness (home help, cleaning staff, building and public works machinery operators)”write the authors of the report. “Furthermore, two out of five businesses show a weak partial imbalance in 2030 and would therefore see the current tensions continue over this horizon if no action is taken”, they add. In other words, this document serves as a reminder of how complex the development of the job market promises to be, not to mention the professions that will appear or disappear under the impetus of digital technology, in particular artificial intelligence, in the coming years.