A Cluster 17 study for “Le Point” shows that support for the strikers depends, in part, on the position of the French on the political spectrum.
By Jacques Paugam
© LOIC VENANCE / AFP
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MDespite the opening of negotiations with TotalEnergies, the conflict in fuel depots and refineries, which began on September 27, is bogged down, for lack of agreement on salary increases with the CGT. The shortage of fuel in service stations affects many sectors of activity and creates tensions between motorists. The trade union center led by Philippe Martinez announced, Saturday, October 15, to persevere in the standoff engaged with the management of the French energy giant.
In this social climate already strained by inflation, a march against “high cost of living and climate inaction” is to take place this Sunday, October 16 at the initiative of Nupes. But what do the French really think? This is the subject of a study carried out by the independent polling institute Cluster 17, for Point, out of a sample of 2,619 people aged 18 and over*. Results ? More than half of French people believe that the management of TotalEnergies and Esso ExxonMobil must give in to the demands.
They are 45% of the voters polled to want “the State to intervene to dislodge the strikers and requisition employees”. On the sensitive subject of the exercise of the right to strike, the study illustrates the broad lines of political fracture at work in French society. Indeed, “38% of the French people questioned say that the responsibility lies with the CGT and the employees on strike”, when “34% say that it is the management of Total and Esso which is in question”. Also according to this survey, “18% believe that Emmanuel Macron and the government are responsible for these shortages”.
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A “yellow vests” logic
It is indeed the “clusters” or “groups” identified as the most popular that mostly blame the executive. From left to right of the political spectrum, these are the “Solidaires” and the “Revoltés” – two sensibilities classified on the left by the study – as well as the “Eurosceptiques”, passing through the “Réfractaires” to the “Social- Patriots”, identified on the right, who say they are in solidarity with the strikers. These last three branches of the electorate voting “massively” for the National Rally, points to the poll, which evokes the formation of a “sort of protest arc”. “We find a logic yellow vests “, say its authors.
Logically, the opposition to the strikers is located among a financially better-off electorate, which is divided between the current majority and the conservative right. “The Macron electorate and the Pécresse electorate fairly unanimously reject the responsibility on the CGT”, establishes Cluster 17. The study notes that among the 45% of voters who prefer state intervention to unblock the refineries, finds the “historic coalition of the right, the one that brought Nicolas Sarkozy to power in 2007”.
After more than 15 days of strike, they are 43% of the French questioned to declare to have had difficulties to get gasoline these last days. A situation which could worsen in the event of general mobilization in public services and public transport, as of next Tuesday. For its part, the government still hopes for a return to normal by next week.
*Study carried out by Cluster 17 for “Le Point” with a sample of 2,168 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over. The sample is drawn up according to the quota method, with regard to the criteria of sex, age, socio-professional category, type of municipality and region of residence. Online self-administered questionnaire. Interviews conducted from September 20 to 21, 2022.