Volker Wissing sees the German economy and infrastructure in danger if the roads are not further expanded. The FDP even goes so far as to demand ten-lane autobahns. However, mobility researchers and railway representatives see the solution in a completely different place.
A traffic jam that stretches to infinity. Country roads full of trucks. Amazon trucks thundering down the freeways. Such images could give the impression that an expansion of the autobahns in Germany is urgently needed. Transport Minister Volker Wissing would also vehemently agree. If it were up to the FDP, the autobahns would be expanded to up to ten lanes, said their parliamentary group leader, Christian Dürr, on ARD.
Nobody denies that there are overcrowded streets and highways. But opinions differ widely on what the solution to this problem looks like. While Wissing predicts a bleak future for Germany as a business location if the autobahns are not further expanded, mobility researcher Andreas Knie calls for a “moratorium on the construction of new autobahns”.
Because the problem cannot be solved with more freeways, says Knie, who heads the research group Digital Mobility and Social Differentiation at the Berlin Science Center. Research shows again and again that more roads lead to more traffic in the long run – not the other way around, as Wissing says. Rather, the problem with overcrowded motorways is the cheap transport costs, according to Knie. They are often disproportionate to the cost of the goods and mean that “everything that isn’t nailed down is transported from left to right”.
Knie is therefore calling for a massive increase in road transport prices so that companies can make their delivery routes more efficient. Railway associations see the solution to congested roads in a shift to rail. “We believe that we are underestimated here,” said Daniela Morling, spokeswoman for the association “Die Güterbahnen”, a network of European railways, at a press conference on Monday.
distorted numbers
In fact, Wissing assumes that not enough goods can be shifted from road to rail. Ten times as many goods are transported on the road as on the rails, said the transport minister in the “early start” of ntv. More freight is added every year – and rail alone cannot accommodate them.
However, the number refers to the transported tons of goods. If you add the distance of these transported tons, the rail performs significantly better. In 2021, 131 billion tonne-kilometres of goods were transported by rail – 506 billion by road. Converted, this means that the train transports less than trucks – but not ten times less, but almost four times less.
In addition, Wissing and his department assume that goods transport will increasingly shift to the road. “According to a current study, road freight traffic will increase by 34 percent by 2051,” Wissing told the “Reutlinger General-Anzeiger”. According to the railway and freight transport associations, it is unclear where this number comes from, as the spokesman emphasized at the press conference.
The forecasts of the association “Die Güterbahnen” show a completely different picture. Rail freight currently accounts for 20.2 percent of the market. By 2053, it could rise to 35 percent. That would mean that 10 to 15 percent fewer trucks would have to be on German roads, according to the association.
But there must be planning and financing security for this. At the press event, Malte Lawrenz from the Association of Freight Car Owners (VPI) said that private investors are already investing in the expansion of rail freight transport without public funding. However, the private sector cannot handle major projects such as the expansion of the infrastructure and the automation and digitization of the railways alone.
Decarbonization on the Autobahn?
In addition, many problems in freight transport will not be solved by expanding the motorways. Like the lack of truck drivers or the lack of space at rest stops. Above all, it will not solve one of the biggest problems Wissing needs to tackle: the decarbonization of transport.
And this is where the FDP politician is particularly lagging behind. According to the amended Climate Protection Act of 2021, the transport sector may only emit 85 million tons of CO2 in 2030. In 2021 it was around 148 million tons – three million more than was specified for the year.
The problem child of climate targets wants to achieve the requirements of the Climate Protection Act by using more climate-neutral vehicles. Wissing wants to “enable climate-neutral traffic on the road, with more e-cars and CO2-neutral fuels, also in freight transport,” he told the “Bild am Sonntag”. Mobility researcher Knie considers this plan unrealistic: “We have a handful of trucks that run on batteries or hydrogen,” he says. “In the next 10 to 25 years we won’t have anything relevant on the road in this regard.”
But what already exists and could be expanded with a little money and time is the rail network. Matthias Gather, Professor of Transport Policy and Spatial Planning at the Erfurt University of Applied Sciences, complained that this is often forgotten. While many creative solutions for the future of passenger transport are being discussed, freight transport is in the “dirty corner of transport policy”. His message: If Wissing wants to solve the problem, it must not go on like this.
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