The final inflation figures published on Wednesday by INSEE make it possible to refine the future remuneration of regulated savings accounts. Confirmation: the Livret A, LDDS and LEP rates should double in August, and even go even higher in early 2023.
Franois Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, has confirmed: the rate of Livret A, and with it other regulated savings books, will increase on 1 August. In what proportion?
He has two choices: strictly apply the regulatory calculation formula; or depart from it, if it considers, for example, that the result of this calculation does not preserve the purchasing power of savers.
This is the first option he chose with regard to the level of inflation, one of the variables taken into account in the calculation formula, for the month of June. According to the figure published on Wednesday by INSEE, it is up: +5.8% over one year, against +5.6% announced in a previous note.
By applying the letter to the calculation formula, the Livret A and the LDDS should yield 2% net from August 1st, a doubling of the current rate. the People’s Savings Account (LEP) rate should rise to 4.6%compared to 2.2% currently.
A doubling of the Livret A rate, from 1% to 2%, from August 1 in the crowd of rising inflation, is possible, the governor of the Banque de France confirmed on France Info on Wednesday, excluding any sudden exceptional thumb. He must now send his recommendation to the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire who must make the official announcement of the new rate of the Livret A, from August 1, in the next few hours.
Probable rates on August 1
- Livret A: 2% (net of all taxes)
- Sustainable and solidarity development booklet (LDDS): 2% (net)
- Credit Mutuel Blue Book: 2% (net)
- Popular savings account (LEP): 4.6% (net)
- Housing savings account (CEL): 1.25% (gross, interest subject to social security contributions but also income tax on CELs opened since 2018)
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A new inevitable rise in February 2023
In a note on the economy published two weeks ago, INSEE also delivered its vision of the rise in prices in the second half of 2022. According to the national statistical institute, headline inflation would first of all continue to rise. increase this summer, to stabilize in the fall between 6.5 and 7% over one year (…). As an annual average, inflation should rise to +5.5% in 2022 (after +1.6% in 2021).
If this hypothesis is confirmed, annual inflation should hover around 6.5%, on average in the second half of the year, leading to a further increase in the remuneration of regulated savings in February 2023, or even from November 2022, as the regulations permit in exceptional circumstances.
How far could rates rise if INSEE’s forecasts come true? Around 6.5% for LEPwhose calculation formula is designed to align with half-yearly inflation. The Livret A, it should be closer to 3%. This will also depend on the evolution of the ster interbank rate, another variable in the calculation formula. The latter has long been stuck in negative territory, around -0.58%. But the change in monetary policy by the ECB, which announced a rise in its key rates in July, should push it up.
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