The new inflation forecast published this Thursday by INSEE makes it possible to refine the future remuneration of regulated savings accounts. Confirmation: the Livret A, LDDS and LEP rates should double in August, and even go even higher in early 2023.
François Villeroy de Galhau, the Governor of the Bank, confirmed it: the Livret A rate, and with it other regulated savings accounts, will increase on August 1st. In what proportion? The boss of the French central bank did not answer this question. He has two choices: strictly apply the regulatory calculation formula; or derogate from it, if it considers, for example, that the result of this calculation does not preserve the purchasing power of savers.
If François Villeroy de Galhau opts for the first solution, which today seems the most likely, the rate projection for next August 1 was further refined on Thursday. INSEE has just published its inflation forecast, one of the variables taken into account in the calculation formula, for the month of June. It is up: +5.8% over one year, against +5.6% announced in a previous note.
If this figure is confirmed on July 13, the Livret A and the LDDS should report 2% net from August 1, a doubling of the current rate. the rate of the People’s Savings Book (LEP), it should rise to 4.6%compared to 2.2% currently.
Probable rates on August 1
- Livret A: 2% (net of all taxes)
- Sustainable and solidarity development booklet (LDDS): 2% (net)
- Crédit Mutuel Blue Book: 2% (net)
- Popular savings account (LEP): 4.6% (net)
- Housing savings account (CEL): 1.25% (gross, interest subject to social security contributions but also to income tax on CELs opened since 2018)
A new inevitable increase in February 2023
In a note on the economy published last week, INSEE also delivered its vision of the rise in prices in the second half of 2022. According to the national statistical institute, “overall inflation would first of all continue to increase this summer, to stabilize in the fall between 6.5 and 7% over one year (…). As an annual average, inflation should amount to +5.5% in 2022 (after +1.6% in 2021). »
If this hypothesis is confirmed, annual inflation should hover around 6.5%, on average in the second half of the year, leading to a further increase in the remuneration of regulated savings in February 2023, or even from November 2022, as the regulations permit in exceptional circumstances.
How high could rates rise if INSEE’s forecasts come true? Around 6.5% for LEPwhose calculation formula is designed to align with half-yearly inflation. The Livret A, it should be closer to 3%. This will also depend on the evolution of the €ster interbank rate, another variable in the calculation formula. The latter has long been stuck in negative territory, around -0.58%. But the change in monetary policy by the ECB, which announced an increase in its key rates in July, should push it up.
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