The French government confirmed on Tuesday its ambition to contain the public deficit to 5% of GDP this year, despite the additional spending mobilized to support purchasing power and a forecast growth of 2.5%, lower than the 4% expected until now. here.
According to Bercy, this control of public finances is mainly explained by a significant surplus of revenue of 50 billion euros compared to what was expected this year, according to the macroeconomic framework of the draft amending budget that the government sent to the High Council of Public Finances, before its presentation to the Council of Ministers next week.
That we review growth downwards, that we maintain the 5% deficit forecast, it is the sign (…) of the mastery, that we impose ourselves, of public finances, we have defended to the Minister of the Economy.
At this stage, Bercy did not however wish to specify the total amount of expenditure that it intends to mobilize in its purchasing power package – it will be necessary to wait until next week -, but taking into account the measures already revealed, it should exceed the 20 billion euros.
The slowdown in the French economy in 2022, due to the Omicron wave of the Covid-19 epidemic at the start of the year and then to the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, which notably boosted inflation, should therefore not cause further the public accounts, according to the forecasts of Bercy.
By bringing the public deficit to 5% of GDP, after 6.5% in 2021, the public debt ratio should fall to 112% of GDP at the end of the year, against 112.9% at the end of 2021.
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In addition to the increase in revenue, resulting from better income from contributions, income tax, VAT and corporation tax, the government is betting on continued job creation (about 115,000) this year.
This macroeconomic scenario is also based on an inflation forecast of 5% on average over the year, a little more optimistic than that of INSEE (5.5%), the government having made the assumption of a of oil lower than the National Institute of Statistics.
Last week, INSEE and the Banque de France announced that they expected growth of 2.3% this year in France.