The Greens have just complained that a “power cartel” is blocking their way into the Federal Council. Now they could do it. But they don’t want to. The SP can rejoice. Now the haggling over the departments is taking place in a small circle.
President Balthasar Glättli wants to lead the Greens to the Bundesrat, but not against the SP.
When the SVP Federal Councilor Ueli Maurer announced his resignation a month ago, the Greens needed a lot of time to think about it. They seriously toyed with the idea of a contest candidacy. It was clear from the start that the attack would have to fail because the SVP’s claim to two seats in the Bundesrat is practically undisputed. After almost three weeks of speculation, the Greens gave up, not least because nobody wanted to be burned for a hopeless candidacy. It was officially said that the “power cartel” of the Federal Council parties refused them entry into the government.
When SP Federal Councilor Simonetta Sommaruga announced her resignation on Wednesday, the Greens didn’t need any time to think about it. They committed themselves in no time: a fight candidacy against the SP is not an issue. The Greens even refrain from playing poker for a while, letting the SP fidget in order to wring one or the other concession from them. There was no more talk of a “power cartel”.
And if the Greens lose in 2023?
The decision is surprising. The Greens’ chances of finally making the longed-for entry into the state government have probably never been better than they are now after Sommaruga’s resignation. There are primarily three reasons for this. First, the SP had a record-low 16.8 percent of voters in the last National Council election. In contrast to the SVP, which has two seats in the Bundesrat, it is actually over-represented. The Greens, on the other hand, are clearly underrepresented with 13.2 percent and zero seats.
Secondly, the Greens are stronger today than ever before – and possibly stronger than they will be the next time there is a vacancy. According to the latest polls, they face losses in the 2023 elections, which would inevitably hurt their chances.
And thirdly, the most important point: as long as there are no tectonic shifts in Swiss politics, the SVP, FDP and center will hardly offer to grant the left-wing camp three of the seven seats in the government. On the other hand, if the Greens were willing to take a seat from the SP, they could expect more support from the right. But they are not.
Everything for the red-green cooperation
Why are the Greens – on paper the largest opposition party in the country – letting this historic opportunity pass? Her parliamentary group made the preliminary decision some time ago: in a kind of non-aggression pact, she vowed not to launch her own candidacy until the next elections if one of the two SP federal councilors should resign. The Greens keep their word, even if it could cost them a seat in government. The SP can count itself lucky to have such a junior partner. Why this sacrifice?
“The SVP and the FDP currently have the absolute majority in the Federal Council, this majority must be cracked,” says the leader of the Greens, National Councilor Aline Trede. The SP, on the other hand, is still the second strongest party. The Greens shared basic values and goals with her. In addition, the SP supported the Greens when they tried to force the FDP Federal Councilor Ignazio Cassis out of office in 2019.
Freely translated: The Greens renounce their own claims to power in order not to endanger the cooperation and the assertiveness of the left camp. The leader of the parliamentary group puts it this way: Especially in key issues such as climate and environmental policy, it will not help if the Greens get a seat in the Bundesrat at the expense of the SP. Then it will still be two against five in the crucial questions. “We want to advance ecological policy in the Federal Council with the support of the SP.”
Attack on the FDP
And so the Greens continue to target the FDP alone. In their statement on Sommaruga’s resignation, they emphasize that the liberals are still the most over-represented with two seats in the Bundesrat. Based on the 15.1 percent of the voters, this is actually the case. However, unlike the SP, the FDP is not expected to see the incumbent Federal Councilors resign, which reduces the chances of the Greens.
In addition, the FDP could gain ground in the elections next year and catch up with the SP, if the latest poll is to be believed. In this case, the green argument would falter. The October 2023 elections will show.
Big castling in the Federal Council?
In December 2022, the Greens will be sitting on the spectators’ bench. No advances are to be expected from the Green Liberals either. The SVP and the SP can probably fill the two vacant seats without a fight. The subsequent distribution of tasks in the new Federal Council will be more exciting. Maurer’s resignation has already opened up completely new perspectives. Now, in addition to the finance department, there is also the environment department, which has been one of the largest, most important and most sought-after departments in the administration not just since the energy crisis.
It is unlikely that one of the newcomers will come into play here. A lot is conceivable. In the event of a major move, apart from Economics Minister Guy Parmelin, all incumbent federal councilors could change houses. The idea of a double change is often heard: Ignazio Cassis would take over the internal department and Alain Berset the external department. However, a smaller castling is also conceivable, with Viola Amherd and Karin Keller-Sutter moving to the vacant departments. And so the two newcomers would traditionally have to take on the most obviously unpopular jobs: defense and the judiciary.