There are many indications that Donald Trump will run again in the 2024 presidential election. A corresponding announcement before the midterm elections in November would entail great risks for the Republicans.
Does he want to go back to the White House? Donald Trump in the Oval Office during his first year in office.
“I’ve already made the decision for myself,” said former President Donald Trump in an interview with the «New York Magazine» to the question of a new candidacy. In the article published on July 14, he leaves open whether he actually wants to compete again. Based on the remaining statements, however, one can assume that he wants to start again.
“I am very confident that I will win if I compete again,” says Trump, for example. Referring to the midterm elections, which will take place in early November, he says: «Do I go public with this before or after? That will be my big decision.”
Trump’s candidacy would be a gift to the Democrats
The former president does not even consider any Republican challengers such as Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, as rivals. Instead, he emphasizes that DeSantis actually only became governor thanks to him. He also raves about a recent performance in Anchorage, Alaska. The fans would have adored him. “More love for me than ever before,” he felt there.
The whole interview is self-adulation. You get the impression of someone who should be keeping a secret but can’t wait to blurt it out. It is understandable that from Trump’s point of view it would be beneficial to announce his application as soon as possible. It would distract from the negative headlines surrounding the hearings in the House of Representatives on the storming of the Capitol and its legal difficulties and anticipate associated reservations in your own party.
A majority of Republicans, on the other hand, would probably prefer to wait and see. In general, it is unusual in the US for presidential candidates to publicize their aspirations before the midterm elections.
In Trump’s case, however, such an early announcement would have very special consequences for the party. He would steal the show from the congressional candidates. The election campaign would only revolve around him and the question of which candidates he supports. Whether that would help or hurt the party is difficult to say. However, many Republicans want to focus on economic issues such as inflation and worry that Trump could alienate moderate Republicans or swing voters.
That would be positive for Democrats because it would distract from Biden’s failures. They could zero in on Trump as the enemy, brand Republicans as extremist against the backdrop of the Capitol storm or opposition to abortion rights and stricter gun controls, and present themselves as a moderate voice of reason.
Even the Democrats are critical of Biden
Actually they are poll numbers Biden is currently at a record low. Even among Democrats, 64 percent would like their party to have another candidate in the 2024 election. However, the polls also show that most Democrat-leaning voters, but also independent swing voters and some Republicans, would vote for Biden if the alternative was Trump: 44 percent of all Americans voted for Biden in this case, 41 percent for Trump.
The ranks of the Democrats closed all the more: According to the survey, 92 percent of their supporters announced that they would vote for Biden if this duel were repeated. At the moment it even looks as if this constellation is Biden’s only chance to win again.
A major factor in Biden’s unpopularity, especially among boys, is his age: he would be 81 in 2024. But even this disadvantage is put into perspective in view of the possible rival Trump, who is only three years younger.
“Distract from criticism of Trump”
However, it would be surprising if the egomaniac Trump took his party’s strategic considerations into account. The former president had entertained the idea of an early announcement as early as last August, during the chaotic withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, according to sources inside. In view of the debacle, he sensed an opportunity to position himself as more militarily competent. Apparently his advisors were able to stop him.
Ahead of America’s July 4th, rumors circulated that Trump might break cover early on that symbolic date. Now it can be heard from his environment that he is considering September. According to an article in the “Washington Post” he is already meeting with key donors and holding talks with his advisors about who could lead his campaign.
His current appearances look like campaign events anyway. He recently gave a speech on crime in Las Vegas, where he continued to call for the death penalty for drug dealers. He will soon be in Washington for the first time since leaving the presidency and will meet many of his former ministers. A public discussion event will cover national issues such as immigration, voting rights, national security and health care.
One influential Republican who supports an early Trump announcement is Senator Lindsey Graham. “The sooner the better,” he says. “It would direct Trump’s attention to the future instead of complaining about the past.”
Trump is still the most popular Republican
Trump is undoubtedly still the most popular Republican, which speaks for an application, but not necessarily for an early announcement. As for the Republican Party as a whole, the risk of Trump disrupting the midterm elections is high. In view of the great dissatisfaction with Biden, the Republicans can only win the midterm elections – if they don’t make any gross mistakes.
Trump undoubtedly wants to claim this predictable success for himself. However, if the Republicans do less well than expected, it could be blamed on the former president’s rush, which would have hurt his chances in the internal party standoff.