” The worse is yet to come. » The economic forecasts published on Tuesday, October 11, by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at least have the merit of clarity. Global growth is expected to be 2.7% in 2023, down 0.2 percentage points from the last July forecast, after 3.2% in 2022. This would be the weakest performance of the last two decades, with the exception of the global financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020.
A third of the international economy could thus experience a contraction in 2022 or 2023. These forecasts remain very hypothetical, however, due to uncertainties linked to the war in Ukraine or the appearance of new variants of Covid-19. The growth of the planet could thus fall below the threshold of 2%, with a probability of 25%.
In the United States, sluggish consumption, with purchasing power eroded by inflation, slowed the rise in gross domestic product (GDP), from 5.7% in 2021 to 1.6% in 2022 for finish, according to IMF projections, at 1% in 2023. The euro zone economy should resist better in 2022 (3.1%) thanks to the good health of the services sector, and in particular tourism in Italy and Spain.
It should then plunge to 0.5% in 2023, on a continent which is one of the most affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with risks of energy shortages this winter and a quadrupling of the price of gas in one year. . “The energy crisis, particularly in Europe, is not a temporary shock”says in passing the IMF, which predicts a winter of 2023 even more difficult than the one to come.
“Upward pressure on prices”
Emerging countries are doing relatively better since they should see their growth remain stable in 2023, at 3.7%. “As the global economy heads into turbulent waters, financial turmoil could well erupt”notes the Washington institution about the rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which is causing an influx of capital from emerging countries to the United States.
After peaking at the end of 2022, inflation is expected to remain “high longer than expected and slow to 4.1% in 2024” globally.
“Upward price pressures pose the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity, compressing incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability”, says Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF. Global inflation has strengthened considerably (8.8% in 2022), reaching levels not seen in rich countries for the past forty years.
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