Lhe Iranian demonstration of military force on April 13 and 14 will probably be a landmark in the Middle East conflicts. Iranian engineers in the arms industries produced high-performance drones and missiles in large numbers, which the Revolutionary Guard army successfully sent and launched towards Israel, by the hundreds and simultaneously.
This technological and military feat was less of a response to the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1er April as a political message to signify that the priority of the Iranian government was the defense of the Islamic Republic and its national territory.
The affirmation of this nationalist dynamic would therefore place in the background, but without abolishing them, the revolutionary and Islamist ambitions of the regime. This new, pragmatic strategy was developed under duress, in an attempt to respond to the threats coming from incessant popular revolts, economic sanctions, the rise in power of Saudi Arabia, the new activism of the Islamic State organization and of Al-Qaeda and the possible internationalization of the war between Israel and the Palestinians.
By demonstrating that Iran now had an autonomous and effective deterrent or attack force, the Islamic Republic affirms its desire to be recognized as a powerful regional actor that can no longer be marginalized. Iran therefore demands to participate fully in discussions and negotiations on regional security, starting with the Palestinian question, by posing as defender of the Palestinians against Israel and Arab countries aligned with the West. The lasting solution to this conflict loaded with symbols is for Iran a necessary prerequisite for any normalization of relations between States in the region, in particular between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Negotiate on an equal footing
By launching their attack from Iranian national territory, without using their non-state allies – their “proxies”, such as Hamas, the Houthis and especially Hezbollah – the Revolutionary Guards made it clear that the security of the State Iran now came before battles with a strong ideological dimension against Israel or against Saudi Arabia and their Western allies. Iran further kept Hezbollah’s strong military and political capabilities intact should the need arise.
By informing the United States in advance to prevent its military demonstration from causing too much damage or casualties that could provide a pretext for a massive Israeli response and an internationalization with certain disastrous consequences, Iran opened up the possibility of negotiating , but on an equal footing.
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