The leaks are not a catastrophe for the climate

Methane is released into the atmosphere from the ruptured Russian natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The climate effect of this unique event is limited. Much larger amounts of methane are released all year round worldwide through the fossil infrastructure.

Every day, through countless gas leaks around the world, roughly the same amount of methane escapes as from the burst pipes in the Baltic Sea.

Danish Defense Command / Handout / EPA

The suspected act of sabotage of the two Russian Baltic Sea gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 has not only alarmed security experts in Europe, but also politicians and activists who are concerned about the consequences of climate change. Because the leaks in the pipelines mean that the climate-damaging greenhouse gas methane, the main component of natural gas, escapes into the atmosphere via bubbling patches on the water surface.

Warnings were raised in Brussels earlier this week that the situation could develop into a climate and environmental disaster. Stefano Grassi, head of cabinet for Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson, announced on Tuesday that the European Commission would be in contact with member countries to stop the leaks as quickly as possible and prevent further escapes of gas.


According to scientists, the climate effect limited be, but the incident is already harmful. On Wednesday afternoon, various authorities published initial estimates of the climate damage caused by the three leaks that were then known; in the meantime it has been announced that there are probably four leaks.

Denmark fears a significant additional burden

According to preliminary Figures from the German Federal Environment Agency the holes in the pipes lead to emissions of around 7.5 million tons of CO2-equivalents. This corresponds to about one percent of Germany’s total annual emissions, as the agency stated in a statement. The authority assumes that the entire contents of the tubes will escape in the coming days. take scientists and observers also assume that rather little methane will dissolve in the water.

Since at least one of the leaks is on Danish territory, emissions in climate reporting are likely to be attributed to Denmark, according to German authorities. the Danish energy authority left meanwhile with an estimated around 14.6 million tons of CO2-Equivalent from a higher climate damage. The emissions correspond to about a third – 32 percent – of the annual Danish CO2-Emissions. At around 45 million tons, these are much less than that around 760 million tons from Germany. The agency further announced that, according to the operator of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, there was 300 million cubic meters of natural gas in each of the two damaged pipes. Meanwhile, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline contained 178 million cubic meters of natural gas.

Scientists and observers warn that the information should be treated with caution. The lack of transparency makes it difficult to independently confirm the data, it is said in discussions. When asked, the Federal Environment Agency stated that the Danish extrapolation assumed, among other things, a higher level of methane in the pipes.

Gas will probably continue to flow from the lines until the end of the week, the Danish Energy Agency says loudly media reports. Then you can try to approach the pipes. Ship and air traffic are still prohibited in a restricted zone of 5 nautical miles due to the risk of accidents and explosions.

Even if the figures differ, one thing is clear: additional emissions are bad news for the climate. Because methane is a very effective greenhouse gas, much more harmful than CO2. Although it decays much faster in the atmosphere after 12 years, it has a warming effect that is up to 28 times stronger over 100 years.

Probably the largest known methane leak

The incident in the Baltic Sea is probably the largest known methane leak ever, despite all the uncertainties, says Ioannis Binietoglou from the organization Clean Air Task Force (CATF), an NGO that has been campaigning for stricter methane regulation for years. The damage is probably greater than the huge leak in America’s Aliso Canyon in 2015, where around 90,000 tons of methane escaped over a period of months.

Nevertheless, they do not represent a climate catastrophe, as was initially feared by some. It’s “a drop in the ocean compared to the vast amounts of methane escaping released every day around the world from things like fracking, coal mining and oil exploration,” said Dave Ray, director of the university’s Climate Change Institute from Edinburgh.

According to CATF, the oil and gas industry loses 85 million tons of methane annually through fugitive emissions and leaks. The total leakage from the Nord Stream tubes could be roughly equivalent to the amount released anywhere else in the world on any single day of the year, says CATF’s Binietoglou: “In the larger context, it shows that our gas systems are really leaking ». Technologies already exist today to repair most leaks cost-effectively.

In an international comparison, Russia and the USA emit the most methane emissions in the oil and gas sector

Countries with the most methane emissions from the oil and gas sector in 2020, top 10

Finnish analyst Lauri Myllyvirta calculated, that the Bornholm pipeline leaks could account for around 1.5 percent of annual methane emissions from Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure alone. That’s a lot for a single leak, but “a no brainer” compared to permanent contamination.

For this reason, climate activists have been increasing pressure on governments for some time to introduce laws toFind leaks faster and repair. Voluntary coalitions of energy companies are a step in the right direction, but activists believe that binding conditions are needed.

The EU is working on a regime to better regulate methane emissions. Also in the context of the international climate negotiations increases the pressure, the methane emissions to reduce. This should help to push the temperature curve down, especially in this decade – and thus get a little closer to the goals of the Paris climate agreement.


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